@article{2999613,
    title = "Modelling SARS-CoV-2 Binding Antibody Waning 8 Months after BNT162b2 Vaccination",
    author = "Hatzakis, A. and Karabinis, A. and Roussos, S. and Pantazis, N. and Degiannis, D. and Chaidaroglou, A. and Petsios, K. and Pavlopoulou, I. and Tsiodras, S. and Paraskevis, D. and Sypsa, V. and Psichogiou, M.",
    journal = "Vaccine",
    year = "2022",
    volume = "10",
    number = "2",
    publisher = "MDPI",
    issn = "0264-410X",
    doi = "10.3390/vaccines10020285",
    keywords = "C reactive protein;  diltiazem;  immunoglobulin G;  tozinameran, adult;  antigen binding;  Article;  blood sampling;  chemiluminescence immunoassay;  controlled study;  exponential model;  female;  health care personnel;  human;  immune response;  immunogenicity;  immunoglobulin blood level;  immunosuppressive treatment;  kinetics;  male;  model selection;  nonhuman;  power law model;  questionnaire;  restricted cubic splines model;  Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2;  statistical analysis;  vaccination",
    abstract = "Several lines of evidence suggest that binding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies such as anti-SARSCoV-2 RBD IgG (anti-RBD) and neutralising antibodies (NA) are correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2, and the correlation of anti-RBD and NA is very high. The effectiveness (VE) of BNT162b2 in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection wanes over time, and this reduction is mainly associated with waning immunity, suggesting that the kinetics of antibodies reduction might be of interest to predict VE. In a study of 97 health care workers (HCWs) vaccinated with the BNT162b2 vaccine, we assessed the kinetics of anti-RBD 30–250 days after vaccination using 388 individually matched plasma samples. Anti-RBD levels declined by 85%, 92%, and 95% at the 4th, 6th, and 8th month from the peak, respectively. The kinetics were estimated using the trajectories of anti-RBD by various models. The restricted cubic splines model had a better fit to the observed data. The trajectories of anti-RBD declines were statistically significantly lower for risk factors of severe COVID-19 and the absence of vaccination side effects. Moreover, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with divergent trajectories consistent with a slower anti-RBD decline over time. These results suggest that anti-RBD may serve as a harbinger for vaccine effectiveness (VE), and it should be explored as a predictor of breakthrough infections and VE. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland."
}