@article{3029295,
    title = "SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk
of cardiovascular disease in Europe",
    author = "Hageman, Steven and Pennells, Lisa and Ojeda, Francisco and Kaptoge, and Stephen and Kuulasmaa, Kari and de Vries, Tamar and Xu, Zhe and Kee, and Frank and Chung, Ryan and Wood, Angela and McEvoy, John William and and Veronesi, Giovanni and Bolton, Thomas and Dendale, Paul and Ference, and Brian A. and Halle, Martin and Timmis, Adam and Vardas, Panos and and Danesh, John and Graham, Ian and Salomaa, Veikko and Visseren, Frank and and De Bacquer, Dirk and Blankenberg, Stefan and Dorresteijn, Jannick and Di and Angelantonio, Emanuele and Achenbach, Stephan and Aleksandrova, and Krasimira and Amiano, Pilar and Amouyel, Philippe and Andersson, Jonas and and Bakker, Stephan J. L. and Costa, Rui Bebiano Da Providencia and and Beulens, Joline W. J. and Blaha, Michael and Bobak, Martin and Boer, and Jolanda M. A. and Bonet, Catalina and Bonnet, Fabrice and and Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine and Braaten, Tonje and Brenner, Hermann and and Brunner, Fabian and Brunner, Eric J. and Brunstrom, Mattias and and Buring, Julie and Butterworth, Adam S. and Capkova, Nadezda and Cesana, and Giancarlo and Chrysohoou, Christina and Colorado-Yohar, Sandra and Cook, and Nancy R. and Cooper, Cyrus and Dahm, Christina C. and Davidson, Karina and and Dennison, Elaine and Di Castelnuovo, Augusto and Donfrancesco, and Chiara and Doerr, Marcus and Dorynska, Agnieszka and Eliasson, Mats and and Engstrom, Gunnar and Ferrari, Pietro and Ferrario, Marco and Ford, Ian and and Fu, Michael and Gansevoort, Ron T. and Giampaoli, Simona and Gillum, and Richard F. and de la Camara, Agustin Gomez and Grassi, Guido and and Hansson, Per-Olof and Huculeci, Radu and Hveem, Kristian and Iacoviello, and Licia and Ikram, M. Kamran and Jorgensen, Torben and Joseph, Bijoy and and Jousilahti, Pekka and Jukema, J. Wouter and Kaaks, Rudolf and Katzke, and Verena and Kavousi, Maryam and Kiechl, Stefan and Klotsche, Jens and and Koenig, Wolfgang and Kronmal, Richard A. and Kubinova, Ruzena and and Kucharska-Newton, Anna and Lall, Kristi and Lehmann, Nils and Leistner, and David and Linneberg, Allan and Lora Pablos, David and Lorenz, Thiess and and Lu, Wentian and Luksiene, Dalia and Lyngbakken, Magnus and Magnussen, and Christina and Malyutina, Sofia and Marin Ibanez, Alejandro and Masala, and Giovanna and Mathiesen, Ellisiv B. and Matsushita, Kuni and Meade, Tom and W. and Melander, Olle and Meyer, Haakon E. and Moons, Karel G. M. and and Moreno-Iribas, Conchi and Muller, David and Muenzel, Thomas and Nikitin, and Yury and Nordestgaard, Borge G. and Omland, Torbjorn and Onland, and Charlotte and Overvad, Kim and Packard, Chris and Pajak, Andrzej and and Palmieri, Luigi and Panagiotakos, Demosthenes and Panico, Salvatore and and Perez-Cornago, Aurora and Peters, Annette and Pietila, Arto and Pikhart, and Hynek and Psaty, Bruce M. and Quarti-Trevano, Fosca and Quiros Garcia, and J. Ramon and Riboli, Elio and Ridker, Paul M. and Rodriguez, Beatriz and and Rodriguez-Barranco, Miguel and Rosengren, Annika and Roussel, Ronan and and Sacerdote, Carlotta and Sans, Susana and Sattar, Naveed and Schiborn, and Catarina and Schmidt, Boerge and Schoettker, Ben and Schulze, Matthias and and Schwartz, Joseph E. and Selmer, Randi Marie and Shea, Steven and and Shipley, Martin J. and Sieri, Sabina and Soderberg, Stefan and Sofat, and Reecha and Tamosiunas, Abdonas and Thorand, Barbara and Tillmann, Taavi and and Tjonneland, Anne and Tong, Tammy Y. N. and Trichopoulou, Antonia and and Tumino, Rosario and Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh and Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne and and Tzoulaki, Joanna and van der Heijden, Amber and van der Schouw, Yvonne and T. and Verschuren, W. M. Monique and Voelzke, Henry and Waldeyer, and Christoph and Wareham, Nicholas J. and Weiderpass, Elisabete and and Weidinger, Franz and Wild, Philipp and Willeit, Johann and Willeit, and Peter and Wilsgaard, Tom and Woodward, Mark and Zeller, Tanja and Zhang, and Dudan and Zhou, Bin and SCORE2 Working Grp and ESC Cardiovasc Risk and Collaboration",
    journal = "European Heart Journal",
    year = "2021",
    volume = "42",
    number = "25",
    pages = "2439-2454",
    publisher = "Oxford University Press",
    issn = "0195-668X, 1522-9645",
    doi = "10.1093/eurheartj/ehab309",
    keywords = "Risk prediction; Cardiovascular disease; Primary prevention; 10-year CVD
risk",
    abstract = "Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an
updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and
non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without
previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.
Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using
individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684
individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing
risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood
pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions
in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating
models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor
distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD
mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external
validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European
countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the
derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices
ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk
varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated
10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood
pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and
HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk
countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2%
for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk
countries.
Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to
predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances
the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD
across Europe."
}