@article{3031313,
    title = "A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert
consultation",
    author = "Iftekhar, Emil Nafis and Priesemann, Viola and Balling, Rudi and Bauer, and Simon and Beutels, Philippe and Valdez, Andre Calero and Cuschieri, and Sarah and Czypionka, Thomas and Dumpis, Uga and Glaab, Enrico and Grill, and Eva and Hanson, Claudia and Hotulainen, Pirta and Klimek, Peter and and Kretzschmar, Mirjam and Kruger, Tyll and Krutzinna, Jenny and Low, and Nicola and Machado, Helena and Martins, Carlos and McKee, Martin and and Mohr, Sebastian Bernd and Nassehi, Armin and Perc, Matjaz and Petelos, and Elena and Pickersgill, Martyn and Prainsack, Barbara and Rocklov, Joacim and and Schernhammer, Eva and Staines, Anthony and Szczurek, Ewa and and Tsiodras, Sotirios and Van Gucht, Steven and Willeit, Peter",
    journal = "LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-EUROPE",
    year = "2021",
    volume = "8",
    publisher = "Elsevier",
    doi = "10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185",
    keywords = "COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; expert survey; Delphi study; group forecast;
non-pharmaceutical interventions; variants of concern; Europe; policy
advice",
    abstract = "How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the
coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key
aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.
The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of
national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of
variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain
unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and
population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting
restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This
challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission
given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In
autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread
again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The
incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care
units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive
level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects
combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide
a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. (c)
2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access
article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)"
}