@article{3056494,
    title = "Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years",
    author = "Wagner, B. and Vogel, H. and Francke, A. and Friedrich, T. and Donders, T. and Lacey, J.H. and Leng, M.J. and Regattieri, E. and Sadori, L. and Wilke, T. and Zanchetta, G. and Albrecht, C. and Bertini, A. and Combourieu-Nebout, N. and Cvetkoska, A. and Giaccio, B. and Grazhdani, A. and Hauffe, T. and Holtvoeth, J. and Joannin, S. and Jovanovska, E. and Just, J. and Kouli, K. and Kousis, I. and Koutsodendris, A. and Krastel, S. and Lagos, M. and Leicher, N. and Levkov, Z. and Lindhorst, K. and Masi, A. and Melles, M. and Mercuri, A.M. and Nomade, S. and Nowaczyk, N. and Panagiotopoulos, K. and Peyron, O. and Reed, J.M. and Sagnotti, L. and Sinopoli, G. and Stelbrink, B. and Sulpizio, R. and Timmermann, A. and Tofilovska, S. and Torri, P. and Wagner-Cremer, F. and Wonik, T. and Zhang, X.",
    journal = "Nature",
    year = "2019",
    volume = "573",
    number = "7773",
    pages = "256-260",
    publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
    issn = "0028-0836",
    doi = "10.1038/s41586-019-1529-0",
    keywords = "rain, Africa;  climate change;  concentration (parameter);  greenhouse gas;  Letter;  monsoon climate;  precipitation;  priority journal;  sea surface temperature;  seasonal variation;  sensitivity analysis;  winter;  climate;  season;  Southern Europe;  theoretical model, Africa;  Climate;  Mediterranean Region;  Models, Theoretical;  Rain;  Seasons",
    abstract = "Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited."
}