@article{3105919,
    title = "Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))",
    author = "Stanaway, J.D. and Afshin, A. and Gakidou, E. and Lim, S.S. and Abate, D. and Abate, K.H. and Abbafati, C. and Abbasi, N. and Abbastabar, H. and Abd-Allah, F. and Abdela, J. and Abdelalim, A. and Abdollahpour, I. and Abdulkader, R.S. and Abebe, M. and Abebe, Z. and Abera, S.F. and Abil, O.Z. and Abraha, H.N. and Abrham, A.R. and Abu-Raddad, L.J. and Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. and Accrombessi, M.M.K. and Acharya, D. and Acharya, P. and Adamu, A.A. and Adane, A.A. and Adebayo, O.M. and Adedoyin, R.A. and Adekanmbi, V. and Ademi, Z. and Adetokunboh, O.O. and Adib, M.G. and Admasie, A. and Adsuar, J.C. and Afanvi, K.A. and Afarideh, M. and Agarwal, G. and Aggarwal, A. and Aghayan, S.A. and Agrawal, A. and Agrawal, S. and Ahmadi, A. and Ahmadi, M. and Ahmadieh, H. and Ahmed, M.B. and Aichour, A.N. and Aichour, I. and Aichour, M.T.E. and Akbari, M.E. and Akinyemiju, T. and Akseer, N. and Al-Aly, Z. and Al-Eyadhy, A. and Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. and Alahdab, F. and Alam, K. and Alam, S. and Alam, T. and Alashi, A. and Alavian, S.M. and Alene, K.A. and Ali, K. and Ali, S.M. and Alijanzadeh, M. and Alizadeh-Navaei, R. and Aljunid, S.M. and Alkerwi, A. and Alla, F. and Alsharif, U. and Altirkawi, K. and Alvis-Guzman, N. and Amare, A.T. and Ammar, W. and Anber, N.H. and Anderson, J.A. and Andrei, C.L. and Androudi, S. and Animut, M.D. and Anjomshoa, M. and Ansha, M.G. and Antó, J.M. and Antonio, C.A.T. and Anwari, P. and Appiah, L.T. and Appiah, S.C.Y. and Arabloo, J. and Aremu, O. and Ärnlöv, J. and Artaman, A. and Aryal, K.K. and Asayesh, H. and Ataro, Z. and Ausloos, M. and Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. and Awasthi, A. and Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. and Ayer, R. and Ayuk, T.B. and Azzopardi, P.S. and Babazadeh, A. and Badali, H. and Badawi, A. and Balakrishnan, K. and Bali, A.G. and Ball, K. and Ballew, S.H. and Banach, M. and Banoub, J.A.M. and Barac, A. and Barker-Collo, S.L. and Bärnighausen, T.W. and Barrero, L.H. and Basu, S. and Baune, B.T. and Bazargan-Hejazi, S. and Bedi, N. and Beghi, E. and Behzadifar, M. and Behzadifar, M. and Béjot, Y. and Bekele, B.B. and Bekru, E.T. and Belay, E. and Belay, Y.A. and Bell, M.L. and Bello, A.K. and Bennett, D.A. and Bensenor, I.M. and Bergeron, G. and Berhane, A. and Bernabe, E. and Bernstein, R.S. and Beuran, M. and Beyranvand, T. and Bhala, N. and Bhalla, A. and Bhattarai, S. and Bhutta, Z.A. and Biadgo, B. and Bijani, A. and Bikbov, B. and Bilano, V. and Bililign, N. and Bin Sayeed, M.S. and Bisanzio, D. and Biswas, T. and Bjørge, T. and Blacker, B.F. and Bleyer, A. and Borschmann, R. and Bou-Orm, I.R. and Boufous, S. and Bourne, R. and Brady, O.J. and Brauer, M. and Brazinova, A. and Breitborde, N.J.K. and Brenner, H. and Briko, A.N. and Britton, G. and Brugha, T. and Buchbinder, R. and Burnett, R.T. and Busse, R. and Butt, Z.A. and Cahill, L.E. and Cahuana-Hurtado, L. and Campos-Nonato, I.R. and Cárdenas, R. and Carreras, G. and Carrero, J.J. and Carvalho, F. and Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. and Castillo Rivas, J. and Castro, F. and Catalá-López, F. and Causey, K. and Cercy, K.M. and Cerin, E. and Chaiah, Y. and Chang, H.-Y. and Chang, J.-C. and Chang, K.-L. and Charlson, F.J. and Chattopadhyay, A. and Chattu, V.K. and Chee, M.L. and Cheng, C.-Y. and Chew, A. and Chiang, P.P.-C. and Chimed-Ochir, O. and Chin, K.L. and Chitheer, A. and Choi, J.-Y.J. and Chowdhury, R. and Christensen, H. and Christopher, D.J. and Chung, S.-C. and Cicuttini, F.M. and Cirillo, M. and Cohen, A.J. and Collado-Mateo, D. and Cooper, C. and Cooper, O.R. and Coresh, J. and Cornaby, L. and Cortesi, P.A. and Cortinovis, M. and Costa, M. and Cousin, E. and Criqui, M.H. and Cromwell, E.A. and Cundiff, D.K. and Daba, A.K. and Dachew, B.A. and Dadi, A.F. and Damasceno, A.A.M. and Dandona, L. and Dandona, R. and Darby, S.C. and Dargan, P.I. and Daryani, A. and Das Gupta, R. and Das Neves, J. and Dasa, T.T. and Dash, A.P. and Davitoiu, D.V. and Davletov, K. and De la Cruz-Góngora, V. and De La Hoz, F.P. and De Leo, D. and De Neve, J.-W. and Degenhardt, L. and Deiparine, S. and Dellavalle, R.P. and Demoz, G.T. and Denova-Gutiérrez, E. and Deribe, K. and Dervenis, N. and Deshpande, A. and Des Jarlais, D.C. and Dessie, G.A. and Deveber, G.A. and Dey, S. and Dharmaratne, S.D. and Dhimal, M. and Dinberu, M.T. and Ding, E.L. and Diro, H.D. and Djalalinia, S. and Do, H.P. and Dokova, K. and Doku, D.T. and Doyle, K.E. and Driscoll, T.R. and Dubey, M. and Dubljanin, E. and Duken, E.E. and Duncan, B.B. and Duraes, A.R. and Ebert, N. and Ebrahimi, H. and Ebrahimpour, S. and Edvardsson, D. and Effiong, A. and Eggen, A.E. and El Bcheraoui, C. and El-Khatib, Z. and Elyazar, I.R. and Enayati, A. and Endries, A.Y. and Er, B. and Erskine, H.E. and Eskandarieh, S. and Esteghamati, A. and Estep, K. and Fakhim, H. and Faramarzi, M. and Fareed, M. and Farid, T.A. and Sá Farinha, C.S.E. and Farioli, A. and Faro, A. and Farvid, M.S. and Farzaei, M.H. and Fatima, B. and Fay, K.A. and Fazaeli, A.A. and Feigin, V.L. and Feigl, A.B. and 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    journal = "The Lancet Neurology",
    year = "2019",
    volume = "393",
    number = "10190",
    pages = "e44",
    publisher = "The Lancet Publishing Group",
    doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31429-1",
    keywords = "erratum",
    abstract = "Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license."
}