@article{3106846,
    title = "Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017",
    author = "Lozano, R. and Fullman, N. and Abate, D. and Abay, S.M. and Abbafati, C. and Abbasi, N. and Abbastabar, H. and Abd-Allah, F. and Abdela, J. and Abdelalim, A. and Abdel-Rahman, O. and Abdi, A. and Abdollahpour, I. and Abdulkader, R.S. and Abebe, N.D. and Abebe, Z. and Abejie, A.N. and Abera, S.F. and Abil, O.Z. and Aboyans, V. and Abraha, H.N. and Abrham, A.R. and Abu-Raddad, L.J. and Abu-Rmeileh, N.M. and Abyu, G.Y. and Accrombessi, M.M.K. and Acharya, D. and Acharya, P. and Adamu, A.A. and Adebayo, O.M. and Adedeji, I.A. and Adedoyin, R.A. and Adekanmbi, V. and Adetokunboh, O.O. and Adhena, B.M. and Adhikari, T.B. and Adib, M.G. and Adou, A.K. and Adsuar, J.C. and Afarideh, M. and Afshari, M. and Afshin, A. and Agarwal, G. and Aghayan, S.A. and Agius, D. and Agrawal, A. and Agrawal, S. and Ahmadi, A. and Ahmadi, M. and Ahmadieh, H. and Ahmed, M.B. and Ahmed, S. and Akalu, T.Y. and Akanda, A.S. and Akbari, M.E. and Akibu, M. and Akinyemi, R.O. and Akinyemiju, T. and Akseer, N. and Alahdab, F. and Al-Aly, Z. and Alam, K. and Alam, T. and Albujeer, A. and Alebel, A. and Alene, K.A. and Al-Eyadhy, A. and Alhabib, S. and Ali, R. and Alijanzadeh, M. and Alizadeh-Navaei, R. and Aljunid, S.M. and Alkerwi, A. and Alla, F. and Allebeck, P. and Allen, C.A. and Almasi, A. and Al-Maskari, F. and Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. and Alonso, J. and Al-Raddadi, R.M. and Alsharif, U. and Altirkawi, K. and Alvis-Guzman, N. and Amare, A.T. and Amenu, K. and Amini, E. and Ammar, W. and Anber, N.H. and Anderson, J.A. and Andrei, C.L. and Androudi, S. and Animut, M.D. and Anjomshoa, M. and Ansari, H. and Ansariadi, A. and Ansha, M.G. and Antonio, C.A.T. and Anwari, P. and Appiah, L.T. and Aremu, O. and Areri, H.A. and Ärnlöv, J. and Arora, M. and Aryal, K.K. and Asayesh, H. and Asfaw, E.T. and Asgedom, S.W. and Asghar, R.J. and Assadi, R. and Ataro, Z. and Atique, S. and Atre, S.R. and Atteraya, M.S. and Ausloos, M. and Avila-Burgos, L. and Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. and Awasthi, A. and Quintanilla, B.P.A. and Ayele, H.T. and Ayele, Y. and Ayer, R. and Azarpazhooh, M.R. and Azzopardi, P.S. and Azzopardi-Muscat, N. and Babalola, T.K. and Babazadeh, A. and Badali, H. and Badawi, A. and Balakrishnan, K. and Bali, A.G. and Banach, M. and Banerjee, A. and Banoub, J.A.M. and Banstola, A. and Barac, A. and Barboza, M.A. and Barker-Collo, S.L. and Bärnighausen, T.W. and Barrero, L.H. and Barthelemy, C.M. and Bassat, Q. and Basu, A. and Basu, S. and Battista, R.J. and Baune, B.T. and Baynes, H.W. and Bazargan-Hejazi, S. and Bedi, N. and Beghi, E. and Behzadifar, M. and Behzadifar, M. and Béjot, Y. and Bekele, B.B. and Belachew, A.B. and Belay, A.G. and Belay, S.A. and Belay, Y.A. and Bell, M.L. and Bello, A.K. and Bennett, D.A. and Bensenor, I.M. and Benzian, H. and Berhane, A. and Berhe, A.K. and Berman, A.E. and Bernabe, E. and Bernstein, R.S. and Bertolacci, G.J. and Beuran, M. and Beyranvand, T. and Bhala, N. and Bhalla, A. and Bhansali, A. and Bhattarai, S. and Bhaumik, S. and Bhutta, Z.A. and Biadgo, B. and Biehl, M.H. and Bijani, A. and Bikbov, B. and Bililign, N. and Sayeed, M.S.B. and Birlik, S.M. and Birungi, C. and Bisanzio, D. and Biswas, T. and Bitew, H. and Bizuneh, H. and Bjertness, E. and Bobasa, E.M. and Boufous, S. and Bourne, R. and Bozorgmehr, K. and Bragazzi, N.L. and Brainin, M. and Brant, L.C. and Brauer, M. and Brazinova, A. and Breitborde, N.J.K. and Briant, P.S. and Britton, G. and Brugha, T. and Bukhman, G. and Busse, R. and Butt, Z.A. and Cahuana-Hurtado, L. and Callender, C.S.K.H. and Campos-Nonato, I.R. and Rincon, J.C.C. and Cano, J. and Car, J. and Car, M. and Cárdenas, R. and Carrero, J.J. and Carter, A. and Carvalho, F. and Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. and Rivas, J.C. and Castro, F. and Causey, K. and Çavlin, A. and Cercy, K.M. and Cerin, E. and Chaiah, Y. and Chalek, J. and Chang, H.-Y. and Chang, J.-C. and Chattopadhyay, A. and Chattu, V.K. and Chaturvedi, P. and Chiang, P.P.-C. and Chin, K.L. and Chisumpa, V.H. and Chitheer, A. and Choi, J.-Y.J. and Chowdhury, R. and Christensen, H. and Christopher, D.J. and Chung, S.-C. and Cicuttini, F.M. and Ciobanu, L.G. and Cirillo, M. and Claro, R.M. and Claßen, T.K.D. and Cohen, A.J. and Collado-Mateo, D. and Cooper, C. and Cooper, L.T. and Cornaby, L. and Cortinovis, M. and Costa, M. and Cousin, E. and Cromwell, E.A. and Crowe, C.S. and Cunningham, M. and Daba, A.K. and Dadi, A.F. and Dandona, L. and Dandona, R. and Dang, A.K. and Dargan, P.I. and Daryani, A. and Das, S.K. and Das Gupta, R. and Das Neves, J. and Dasa, T.T. and Dash, A.P. and Davis, A.C. and Davitoiu, D.V. and Davletov, K. and Dayama, A. and De Courten, B. and De Leo, D. and Neve, J.W.D. and De Steur, H. and Degefa, M.G. and Degenhardt, L. and Degfie, T.T. and Deiparine, S. and Dellavalle, R.P. and Demoz, G.T. and Demtsu, B. and Denova-Gutiérrez, E. and Deribe, K. and Dervenis, N. and Dessie, G.A. and Dey, S. and Dharmaratne, S.D. and Dhimal, M. and Dicker, D. and Dinberu, M.T. and Ding, E.L. and Djalalinia, S. and Do, H.P. and Dokova, K. and Doku, D.T. and Douwes-Schultz, D. and Driscoll, T.R. and Duan, L. and Dubey, M. and Dubljanin, E. and Duken, E.E. and Duncan, B.B. and Duraes, A.R. and Ebrahimpour, S. and Edvardsson, D. and El Bcheraoui, C. and Eldrenkamp, E. and El-Khatib, Z. and Elyazar, I.R.F. and Enayati, A. and Endries, A.Y. and Eshrati, B. and Eskandarieh, S. and Esteghamati, A. and Esteghamati, S. and Estep, K. and Fakhar, M. and Fakhim, H. and Fanzo, J. and Faramarzi, M. and Fareed, M. and Farhadi, F. and Farid, T.A. and Farinha, C.S.E.S. and Farioli, A. and Faro, A. and Farvid, M.S. and Farzadfar, F. and Farzaei, M.H. and Farzam, H. and Fazaeli, A.A. and Fazeli, M.S. and Feigin, V.L. and Feigl, A.B. and Fekadu, W. and Feldman, R. and Fentahun, N. and Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. and Fernandes, E. and Fernandes, J.C. and Feyissa, G.T. and Fijabi, D.O. and Filip, I. and Finegold, S. and Finger, J.D. and Fischer, F. and Fitzmaurice, C. and Flor, L.S. and Foigt, N.A. and Foreman, K.J. and Frank, T.D. and Franklin, R.C. and Fukumoto, T. and Fukutaki, K. and Fuller, J.E. and Fürst, T. and Furtado, J.M. and Gakidou, E. and Gallus, S. and Gankpe, F.G. and Gansevoort, R.T. and Garcia, A.C. and Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. and Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. and Gardner, W.M. and Gebre, A.K. and Gebre, T. and Gebregergs, G.B. and Gebrehiwot, T.T. and Gebremedhin, A.T. and Gebremichael, B. and Gebremichael, T.G. and Gelano, T.F. and Geleijnse, J.M. and Geramo, Y.C.D. and Getachew, S. and Gething, P.W. and Gezae, K.E. and Ghadami, M.R. and Ghadimi, R. and Ghadiri, K. and Ghasemi-Kasman, M. and Ghiasvand, H. and Ghimire, M. and Ghoshal, A.G. and Giampaoli, S. and Gill, P.S. and Gill, T.K. and Giussani, G. and Gnedovskaya, E.V. and Goldberg, E.M. and Goli, S. and Gona, P.N. and Goodridge, A. and Gopalani, S.V. and Gorman, T.M. and Goto, A. and Goulart, A.C. and Goulart, B.N.G. and Grada, A. and Griswold, M.G. and Grosso, G. and Gugnani, H.C.C. and Guillemin, F. and Guimaraes, A.L.S. and Guo, Y. and Gupta, P.C. and Gupta, R. and Gupta, R. and Gupta, T. and Ha, G.H. and Haagsma, J.A. and Hachinski, V. and Hafezi-Nejad, N. and Bidgoli, H.H. and Hagos, T.B. and Haile, M.T. and Hailegiyorgis, T.T. and Hailu, G.B. and Haj-Mirzaian, A. and Haj-Mirzaian, A. and Hamadeh, R.R. and Hamidi, S. and Hankey, G.J. and Harb, H.L. and Harikrishnan, S. and Haririan, H. and Haro, J.M. and Hasan, M. and Hassankhani, H. and Hassen, H.Y. and Havmoeller, R. and Hawley, C.N. and Hay, S.I. and He, Y. and Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. and Hegazy, M.I. and Heibati, B. and Heidari, B. and Heidari, M. and Hendrie, D. and Henok, A. and Heredia-Pi, I. and Herteliu, C. and Heydarpour, B. and Heydarpour, F. and Heydarpour, S. and Hibstu, D.T. and Híjar, M. and Hoek, H.W. and Hoffman, D.J. and Hole, M.K. and Homaie Rad, E. and Hoogar, P. and Horita, N. and Hosgood, H.D. and Hosseini, S.M. and Hosseinzadeh, M. and Hostiuc, M. and Hostiuc, S. and Hotez, P.J. and Hoy, D.G. and Hsairi, M. and Hsiao, T. and Hu, G. and Huang, J.J. and Hughes, C. and Huynh, C.K. and Igumbor, E.U. and Ikeda, C.T. and Ilesanmi, O.S. and Iqbal, U. and Irvani, S.S.N. and Irvine, C.M.S. and Islam, S.M.S. and Islami, F. and Ivers, R.Q. and Izadi, N. and Jacobsen, K.H. and Jahangiry, L. and Jahanmehr, N. and Jain, S.K. and Jakovljevic, M. and Jalu, M.T. and Jamal, A.A. and James, S.L. and Jassal, S.K. and Javanbakht, M. and Jayatilleke, A.U. and Jeemon, P. and Jha, R.P. and Jha, V. and Ji, J.S. and Johnson, C.O. and Johnson, S.C. and Jonas, J.B. and Jonnagaddala, J. and Shushtari, Z.J. and Joshi, A. and Jozwiak, J.J. and Jungari, S.B. and Jürisson, M. and Madhanraj, K. and Kabir, Z. and Kadel, R. and Kahsay, A. and Kahssay, M. and Kalani, R. and Kapil, U. and Karami, M. and Matin, B.K. and Karanikolos, M. and Karimi, N. and Karimi, S.M. and Karimi-Sari, H. and Kasaeian, A. and Kassa, D.H. and Kassa, G.M. and Kassa, T.D. and Kassa, Z.Y. and Kassebaum, N.J. and Katikireddi, S.V. and Kaul, A. and Kawakami, N. and Kazemi, Z. and Karyani, A.K. and Kazi, D.S. and Prakash, K.C. and Kebede, S. and Keiyoro, P.N. and Kemmer, L. and Kemp, G.R. and Kengne, A.P. and Keren, A. and Kesavachandran, C.N. and Khader, Y.S. and Khafaei, B. and Khafaie, M.A. and Khajavi, A. and Khalid, N. and Khalil, I.A. and Khan, E.A. and Khan, M.S. and Khan, M.A. and Khang, Y.-H. and Khanna, T. and Khater, M.M. and Khatony, A. and Khazaeipour, Z. and Khazaie, H. and Khoja, A.T. and Khosravi, A. and Khosravi, M.H. and Khubchandani, J. and Kiadaliri, A.A. and Kiarie, H.W. and Kibret, G.D. and Kiirithio, D.N. and Kim, D. and Kim, J.Y. and Kim, Y.-E. and Kim, Y.J. and Kimokoti, R.W. and Kinfu, Y. and Kinra, S. and Kisa, A. and Kissimova-Skarbek, K. and Kissoon, N. and Kivimäki, M. and Kocarnik, J.M. and Kochhar, S. and Kokubo, Y. and Kolola, T. and Kopec, J.A. and Kosek, M.N. and Kosen, S. and Koul, P.A. and Koyanagi, A. and Kravchenko, M.A. and Krishan, K. and Krohn, K.J. and Defo, B.K. and Kucuk Bicer, B. and Kudom, A.A. and Kulikoff, X.R. and Kumar, G.A. and Kumar, M. and Kumar, P. and Kutz, M.J. and Kyu, H.H. and Lachat, C. and Lad, D.P. and Lad, S.D. and Lafranconi, A. and Lagat, A.K. and Lal, D.K. and Lalloo, R. and Lam, H. and Lami, F.H. and Lamichhane, P. and Lan, Q. and Lang, J.J. and Lansingh, V.C. and Lansky, S. and Larson, H.J. and Larsson, A.O. and Laryea, D.O. and Lassi, Z.S. and Latifi, A. and Lau, K.M.-M. and Laxmaiah, A. and Lazarus, J.V. and Leasher, J.L. and Lebedev, G. and Ledesma, J.R. and Lee, J.B. and Lee, P.H. and Leever, A.T. and Leigh, J. and Leinsalu, M. and Leshargie, C.T. and Leung, J. and Lewycka, S. and Li, S. and Li, X. and Li, Y. and Liang, J. and Liang, X. and Liben, M.L. and Lim, L.-L. and Limenih, M.A. and Linn, S. and Liu, S. and Liu, Y. and Lodha, R. and Logroscino, G. and Lopez, A.D. and Lorkowski, S. and Lotufo, P.A. and Lucchesi, L.R. and Lyons, R.A. and Macarayan, E.R.K. and Mackay, M.T. and Maddison, E.R. and Madotto, F. and Maghavani, D.P. and Magis-Rodriguez, C. and Mahotra, N.B. and Majdan, M. and Majdzadeh, R. and Majeed, A. and Malekzadeh, R. and Malta, D.C. and Mamun, A.A. and Manda, A.-L. and Mandarano-Filho, L.G. and Mangalam, S. and Manguerra, H. and Mansournia, M.A. and Mapoma, C.C. and Maravilla, J.C. and Marcenes, W. and Marks, A. and Martin, R.V. and Martins, S.C.O. and Martins-Melo, F.R. and Martopullo, I. and Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. and Massenburg, B.B. and Mathur, M.R. and Maulik, P.K. and Mazidi, M. and McAlinden, C. and McGrath, J.J. and McKee, M. and McMahon, B.J. and Mehata, S. and Mehndiratta, M.M. and Mehrotra, R. and Mehta, K.M. and Mehta, V. and Mejia-Rodriguez, F. and Mekonen, T. and Mekonnen, T.C.C. and Meles, H.G. and Melese, A. and Melku, M. and Memiah, P.T.N. and Memish, Z.A. and Mendoza, W. and Mengistu, D.T. and Mengistu, G. and Mensah, G.A. and Mensink, G.B.M. and Mereta, S.T. and Meretoja, A. and Meretoja, T.J. and Mestrovic, T. and Mezgebe, H.B. and Miazgowski, B. and Miazgowski, T. and Millear, A.I. and Miller, T.R. and Miller-Petrie, M.K. and Milne, G.J. and Mini, G.K. and Minnig, S.P. and Mirabi, P. and Mirarefin, M. and Mirrakhimov, E.M. and Misganaw, A.T. and Mitchell, P.B. and Moazen, B. and Moghadamnia, A.A. and Mohajer, B. and Mohammad, K.A. and Mohammadi, M. and Mohammadifard, N. and Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. and Mohammed, M.A. and Mohammed, S. and Mohan, M.B.V. and Mohan, V. and Mohebi, F. and Moitra, M. and Mokdad, A.H. and Molokhia, M. and Monasta, L. and Montañez, J.C. and Moosazadeh, M. and Moradi, G. and Moradi, M. and Moradi-Lakeh, M. and Moradinazar, M. and Moraga, P. and Morawska, L. and Morgado-da-Costa, J. and Morisaki, N. and Morrison, S.D. and Mosapour, A. and Moschos, M.M. and Mountjoy-Venning, W.C. and Mouodi, S. and Mousavi, S.M. and Muche, A.A. and Muchie, K.F. and Mueller, U.O. and Muhammed, O.S.S. and Mukhopadhyay, S. and Mullany, E.C. and Muller, K. and Mumford, J.E. and Murhekar, M. and Murthy, G.V.S. and Murthy, S. and Musa, J. and Musa, K.I. and Mustafa, G. and Muthupandian, S. and Nabhan, A.F. and Nachega, J.B. and Nagarajan, A.J. and Nagel, G. and Naghavi, M. and Naheed, A. and Nahvijou, A. and Naidoo, K. and Naik, G. and Naik, N. and Najafi, F. and Naldi, L. and Nam, H.S. and Nangia, V. and Nansseu, J.R. and Nascimento, B.R. and Nawaz, H. and Neamati, N. and Negoi, I. and Negoi, R.I. and Neupane, S. and Newton, C.R.J. and Ngalesoni, F.N. and Ngunjiri, J.W. and Nguyen, A. and Nguyen, G. and Nguyen, H. and Nguyen, H.L.T. and Nguyen, H.T. and Nguyen, M. and Nichols, E. and Nigatu, S.G. and Ningrum, D.N.A. and Nirayo, Y.L. and Nisar, M.I. and Nixon, M.R. and Nolutshungu, N. and Nomura, M. and Norheim, O.F. and Noroozi, M. and Norrving, B. and Noubiap, J.J. and Nouri, H.R. and Shiadeh, M.N. and Nowroozi, M.R. and Nyasulu, P.S. and Obermeyer, C.M. and Ofori-Asenso, R. and Ogah, O.S. and Ogbo, F.A. and Oh, I.-H. and Okoro, A. and Oladimeji, K.E. and Oladimeji, O. and Olagunju, A.T. and Olagunju, T.O. and Olivares, P.R. and Olsen, H.E. and Olusanya, B.O. and Olusanya, J.O. and Ong, K.L. and Ong, S.K. and Oommen, A.M. and Opio, J.N. and Oren, E. and Oros, A. and Ortega-Altamirano, D.D.V. and Ortiz, A. and Ortiz, J.R. and Ortiz-Panozo, E. and Ota, E. and Otstavnov, S.S. and Owolabi, M.O. and Mahesh, P.A. and Pakhale, S. and Pakhare, A.P. and Pan, W.-H. and Pana, A. and Panda, B.K. and Panda-Jonas, S. and Pandian, J.D. and Papantoniou, N. and Park, E.-K. and Parry, C.D.H. and Parsian, H. and Patel, S. and Pati, S. and Patle, A. and Patton, G.C. and Paturi, V.R. and Paudel, D. and Paulson, K.R. and Pearce, N. and Peprah, E.K. and Pereira, D.M. and Perico, N. and Pervaiz, A. and Pesudovs, K. and Petri, W.A. and Petzold, M. and Phillips, M.R. and Pigott, D.M. and Pillay, J.D. and Pirsaheb, M. and Pletcher, M. and Pond, C.D. and Postma, M.J. and Pourshams, A. and Poustchi, H. and Prabhakaran, D. and Prakash, S. and Prasad, N. and Purcell, C.A. and Pyakurel, M. and Qorbani, M. and Quansah, R. and Radfar, A. and Rafay, A. and Rafiei, A. and Rahim, F. and Rahimi, K. and Rahimi-Movaghar, A. and Rahimi-Movaghar, V. and Rahman, M. and Rahman, M.S. and Rahman, M.H.U. and Rahman, M.A. and Rahman, S.U. and Rai, R.K. and Rajati, F. and Rajsic, S. and Ram, U. and Rana, S.M. and Ranabhat, C.L. and Ranjan, P. and Rasella, D. and Rawaf, D.L. and Rawaf, S. and Razo-García, C. and Reddy, K.S. and Reiner, R.C. and Reis, C. and Reitsma, M.B. and Remuzzi, G. and Renzaho, A.M.N. and Resnikoff, S. and Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. and Rezaei, S. and Rezaeian, S. and Rezai, M.S. and Riahi, S.M. and Ribeiro, A.L.P. and Rios-Blancas, M.J. and Roba, K.T. and Roberts, N.L.S. and Roever, L. and Ronfani, L. and Roshandel, G. and Rostami, A. and Roth, G.A. and Roy, A. and Rubagotti, E. and Ruhago, G.M. and Sabde, Y.D. and Sachdev, P.S. and Saddik, B. and Sadeghi, E. and Safari, H. and Safari, Y. and Safari-Faramani, R. and Safdarian, M. and Safi, S. and Safiri, S. and Sagar, R. and Sahebkar, A. and Sahraian, M.A. and Sajadi, H.S. and Salam, N. and Salama, J.S. and Salamati, P. and De Freitas Saldanha, R. and Saleem, Z. and Salimi, Y. and Salimzadeh, H. and Salomon, J.A. and Salvi, S.S. and Salz, I. and Sambala, E.Z. and Samy, A.M. and Sanabria, J. and Sanchez-Niño, M.D. and Santos, I.S. and Milicevic, M.M.S. and Jose, B.P.S. and Sardana, M. and Sarker, A.R. and Sarrafzadegan, N. and Sartorius, B. and Sarvi, S. and Sathian, B. and Satpathy, M. and Savic, M. and Sawant, A.R. and Sawhney, M. and Saxena, S. and Saylan, M. and Sayyah, M. and Schaeffner, E. and Schmidt, M.I. and Schneider, I.J.C. and Schöttker, B. and Schutte, A.E. and Schwebel, D.C. and Schwendicke, F. and Seedat, S. and Sekerija, M. and Sepanlou, S.G. and Serván-Mori, E. and Seyedmousavi, S. and Shabaninejad, H. and Shackelford, K.A. and Shafieesabet, A. and Shaheen, A.A. and Shaikh, M.A. and Shams-Beyranvand, M. and Shamsi, M.B. and Shamsizadeh, M. and Sharafi, H. and Sharafi, K. and Sharif, M. and Sharif-Alhoseini, M. and Sharma, J. and Sharma, R. and Sharma, S.K. and She, J. and Sheikh, A. and Shey, M.S. and Shi, P. and Shibuya, K. and Shields, C. and Shifa, G.T. and Shiferaw, M.S. and Shigematsu, M. and Shiri, R. and Shirkoohi, R. and Shirude, S. and Shishani, K. and Shiue, I. and Shokraneh, F. and Shoman, H. and Shrime, M.G. and Shukla, S.R. and Si, S. and Siabani, S. and Sibai, A.M. and Siddiqi, T.J. and Sigfusdottir, I.D. and Silpakit, N. and Silva, D.A.S. and Silva, J.P. and Da Silva, N.T. and Silveira, D.G.A. and Singh, J.A. and Singh, N.P. and Singh, O.P. and Singh, P.K. and Singh, V. and Sinha, D.N. and Skiadaresi, E. and Sliwa, K. and Smith, A.E. and Smith, M. and Filho, A.M.S. and Sobaih, B.H. and Sobhani, S. and Soljak, M. and Soofi, M. and Soosaraei, M. and Sorensen, R.J.D. and Soriano, J.B. and Soshnikov, S. and Soyiri, I.N. and Spinelli, A. and Sposato, L.A. and Sreeramareddy, C.T. and Srinivasan, R.G. and Srinivasan, V. and Stanaway, J.D. and Starodubov, V.I. and Stathopoulou, V. and Steckling, N. and Stein, D.J. and Stewart, L.G. and Stockfelt, L. and Stokes, M.A. and Straif, K. and Sudaryanto, A. and Sufiyan, M.B. and Sunguya, B.F. and Sur, P.J. and Sutradhar, I. and Sykes, B.L. and Sylaja, P.N. and Sylte, D.O. and Szoeke, C.E.I. and Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. and Tabuchi, T. and Tadakamadla, S.K. and Tamirat, K.S. and Tandon, N. and Tanser, F.C. and Tassew, A.A. and Tassew, S.G. and Tavakkoli, M. and Taveira, N. and Tawye, N.Y. and Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. and Tekalign, T.G. and Tekle, M.G. and Temesgen, H. and Temsah, M.-H. and Temsah, O. and Terkawi, A.S. and Teshale, M.Y. and Teshome, D.F. and Tessema, B. and Teweldemedhin, M. and Thakur, J.S. and Thankappan, K.R. and Theis, A. and Thirunavukkarasu, S. and Thomas, L.A. and Thomas, N. and Thomson, A.J. and Thrift, A.G. and Tilahun, B. and To, Q.G. and Tobe-Gai, R. and Tonelli, M. and Topor-Madry, R. and Torre, A.E. and Tortajada-Girbés, M. and Tovani-Palone, M.R. and Towbin, J.A. and Tran, B.X. and Tran, K.B. and Tran, T.T. and Tripathy, S.P. and Troeger, C.E. and Truelsen, T.C. and Tsadik, A.G. and Car, L.T. and Tuzcu, E.M. and Tymeson, H.D. and Ukwaja, K.N. and Ullah, I. and Updike, R.L. and Usman, M.S. and Uthman, O.A. and Vaduganathan, M. and Vaezi, A. and Vaidya, G. and Valdez, P.R. and Van Donkelaar, A. and Varavikova, E. and Vasankari, T.J. and Venketasubramanian, N. and Vidavalur, R. and Villafaina, S. and Violante, F.S. and Vladimirov, S.K. and Vlassov, V. and Vollmer, S. and Vollset, S.E. and Vos, T. and Vosoughi, K. and Vujcic, I.S. and Wagner, G.R. and Wagnew, F.S. and Waheed, Y. and Walson, J.L. and Wang, Y. and Wang, Y.-P. and Wassie, M.M. and Weiderpass, E. and Weintraub, R.G. and Weiss, J. and Weldegebreal, F. and Weldegwergs, K.G. and Werdecker, A. and Werkneh, A.A. and West, T.E. and Westerman, R. and Whisnant, J.L. and Whiteford, H.A. and Widecka, J. and Widecka, K. and Wijeratne, T. and Wilner, L.B. and Winkler, A.S. and Wiyeh, A.B. and Wiysonge, C.S. and Wolde, H.F. and Wolfe, C.D.A. and Wu, S. and Xavier, D. and Xu, G. and Xu, R. and Yadollahpour, A. and Jabbari, S.H.Y. and Yakob, B. and Yamada, T. and Yan, L.L. and Yano, Y. and Yaseri, M. and Yasin, Y.J. and Ye, P. and Yearwood, J.A. and Yeshaneh, A. and Yimer, E.M. and Yip, P. and Yirsaw, B.D. and Yisma, E. and Yonemoto, N. and Yonga, G. and Yoon, S.-J. and Yotebieng, M. and Younis, M.Z. and Yousefifard, M. and Yu, C. and Zaman, S.B. and Zamani, M. and Zare, Z. and Zavala-Arciniega, L. and Zegeye, D.T. and Zegeye, E.A. and Zeleke, A.J. and Zendehdel, K. and Zerfu, T.A. and Zhang, A.L. and Zhang, X. and Zhou, M. and Zhu, J. and Zimsen, S.R.M. and Zodpey, S. and Zoeckler, L. and Zucker, I. and Zuhlke, L.J.J. and Lim, S.S. and Murray, C.J.L. and GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators",
    journal = "The Lancet Neurology",
    year = "2018",
    volume = "392",
    number = "10159",
    pages = "2091-2138",
    publisher = "The Lancet Publishing Group",
    doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32281-5",
    keywords = "adolescent;  adult;  alcohol consumption;  Article;  birth rate;  child;  childhood mortality;  China;  demography;  feasibility study;  female;  health care concepts;  health care personnel;  health related sustainable development goal index;  human;  India;  international cooperation;  Japan;  major clinical study;  malaria;  male;  malnutrition;  maternal mortality;  newborn;  newborn mortality;  non communicable disease;  physical violence;  population;  prevalence;  priority journal;  sex factor;  sexual violence;  smoking;  United Kingdom;  global disease burden;  global health;  health status;  health status indicator;  mortality;  motivation;  risk factor;  sexual crime;  statistics and numerical data;  sustainable development;  trends;  United Nations, Female;  Global Burden of Disease;  Global Health;  Goals;  Health Status;  Health Status Indicators;  Humans;  Male;  Mortality;  Risk Factors;  Sex Offenses;  Sustainable Development;  United Nations",
    abstract = "Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license"
}