@article{3106848,
    title = "Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017",
    author = "Dicker, D. and Nguyen, G. and Abate, D. and Abate, K.H. and Abay, S.M. and Abbafati, C. and Abbasi, N. and Abbastabar, H. and Abd-Allah, F. and Abdela, J. and Abdelalim, A. and Abdel-Rahman, O. and Abdi, A. and Abdollahpour, I. and Abdulkader, R.S. and Abdurahman, A.A. and Abebe, H.T. and Abebe, M. and Abebe, Z. and Abebo, T.A. and Aboyans, V. and Abraha, H.N. and Abrham, A.R. and Abu-Raddad, L.J. and Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. and Accrombessi, M.M.K. and Acharya, P. and Adebayo, O.M. and Adedeji, I.A. and Adedoyin, R.A. and Adekanmbi, V. and Adetokunboh, O.O. and Adhena, B.M. and Adhikari, T.B. and Adib, M.G. and Adou, A.K. and Adsuar, J.C. and Afarideh, M. and Afshin, A. and Agarwal, G. and Aggarwal, R. and Aghayan, S.A. and Agrawal, S. and Agrawal, A. and Ahmadi, M. and Ahmadi, A. and Ahmadieh, H. and Ahmed, M.L.C.B. and Ahmed, S. and Ahmed, M.B. and Aichour, A.N. and Aichour, I. and Aichour, M.T.E. and Akanda, A.S. and Akbari, M.E. and Akibu, M. and Akinyemi, R.O. and Akinyemiju, T. and Akseer, N. and Alahdab, F. and Al-Aly, Z. and Alam, K. and Alebel, A. and Aleman, A.V. and Alene, K.A. and Al-Eyadhy, A. and Ali, R. and Alijanzadeh, M. and Alizadeh-Navaei, R. and Aljunid, S.M. and Alkerwi, A. and Alla, F. and Allebeck, P. and Allen, C.A. and Alonso, J. and Al-Raddadi, R.M. and Alsharif, U. and Altirkawi, K. and Alvis-Guzman, N. and Amare, A.T. and Amini, E. and Ammar, W. and Amoako, Y.A. and Anber, N.H. and Andrei, C.L. and Androudi, S. and Animut, M.D. and Anjomshoa, M. and Anlay, D.Z. and Ansari, H. and Ansariadi, A. and Ansha, M.G. and Antonio, C.A.T. and Appiah, S.C.Y. and Aremu, O. and Areri, H.A. and Ärnlöv, J. and Arora, M. and Artaman, A. and Aryal, K.K. and Asadi-Lari, M. and Asayesh, H. and Asfaw, E.T. and Asgedom, S.W. and Assadi, R. and Ataro, Z. and Atey, T.M.M. and Athari, S.S. and Atique, S. and Atre, S.R. and Atteraya, M.S. and Attia, E.F. and Ausloos, M. and Avila-Burgos, L. and Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. and Awasthi, A. and Awuah, B. and Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. and Ayele, H.T. and Ayele, Y. and Ayer, R. and Ayuk, T.B. and Azzopardi, P.S. and Azzopardi-Muscat, N. and Badali, H. and Badawi, A. and Balakrishnan, K. and Bali, A.G. and Banach, M. and Banstola, A. and Barac, A. and Barboza, M.A. and Barquera, S. and Barrero, L.H. and Basaleem, H. and Bassat, Q. and Basu, A. and Basu, S. and Baune, B.T. and Bazargan-Hejazi, S. and Bedi, N. and Beghi, E. and Behzadifar, M. and Behzadifar, M. and Béjot, Y. and Bekele, B.B. and Belachew, A.B. and Belay, A.G. and Belay, E. and Belay, S.A. and Belay, Y.A. and Bell, M.L. and Bello, A.K. and Bennett, D.A. and Bensenor, I.M. and Berhane, A. and Berman, A.E. and Bernabe, E. and Bernstein, R.S. and Bertolacci, G.J. and Beuran, M. and Beyranvand, T. and Bhala, N. and Bhatia, E. and Bhatt, S. and Bhattarai, S. and Bhaumik, S. and Bhutta, Z.A. and Biadgo, B. and Bijani, A. and Bikbov, B. and Bililign, N. and Bin Sayeed, M.S. and Birlik, S.M. and Birungi, C. and Bisanzio, D. and Biswas, T. and Bjørge, T. and Bleyer, A. and Bora Basara, B. and Bose, D. and Bosetti, C. and Boufous, S. and Bourne, R. and Brady, O.J. and Bragazzi, N.L. and Brant, L.C. and Brazinova, A. and Breitborde, N.J.K. and Brenner, H. and Britton, G. and Brugha, T. and Burke, K.E. and Busse, R. and Butt, Z.A. and Cahuana-Hurtado, L. and Callender, C.S.K.H. and Campos-Nonato, I.R. and Campuzano Rincon, J.C. and Cano, J. and Car, M. and Cárdenas, R. and Carreras, G. and Carrero, J.J. and Carter, A. and Carvalho, F. and Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. and Castillo Rivas, J. and Castro, F. and Catalá-López, F. and Çavlin, A. and Cerin, E. and Chaiah, Y. and Champs, A.P. and Chang, H.-Y. and Chang, J.-C. and Chattopadhyay, A. and Chaturvedi, P. and Chen, W. and Chiang, P.P.-C. and Chimed-Ochir, O. and Chin, K.L. and Chisumpa, V.H. and Chitheer, A. and Choi, J.-Y.J. and Christensen, H. and Christopher, D.J. and Chung, S.-C. and Cicuttini, F.M. and Ciobanu, L.G. and Cirillo, M. and Claro, R.M. and Cohen, A.J. and 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    journal = "The Lancet Neurology",
    year = "2018",
    volume = "392",
    number = "10159",
    pages = "1684-1735",
    publisher = "The Lancet Publishing Group",
    doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31891-9",
    keywords = "adolescent;  adult;  Article;  cause of death;  Central African Republic;  child;  controlled study;  disease burden;  female;  government;  human;  Human immunodeficiency virus infection;  infant;  life expectancy;  male;  mortality;  newborn;  population research;  preschool child;  priority journal;  probability;  sex difference;  Singapore;  standardization;  trend study;  age distribution;  aged;  global disease burden;  global health;  middle aged;  mortality;  sex ratio;  socioeconomics;  statistics and numerical data;  trends;  very elderly;  young adult, Adolescent;  Adult;  Age Distribution;  Aged;  Aged, 80 and over;  Child;  Child, Preschool;  Female;  Global Burden of Disease;  Global Health;  Humans;  Infant;  Infant, Newborn;  Life Expectancy;  Male;  Middle Aged;  Mortality;  Sex Distribution;  Socioeconomic Factors;  Young Adult",
    abstract = "Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s)."
}