@article{3108884,
    title = "Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: A modelling study",
    author = "Blach, S. and Zeuzem, S. and Manns, M. and Altraif, I. and Duberg, A.-S. and Muljono, D.H. and Waked, I. and Alavian, S.M. and Lee, M.-H. and Negro, F. and Abaalkhail, F. and Abdou, A. and Abdulla, M. and Abou Rached, A. and Aho, I. and Akarca, U. and Al Ghazzawi, I. and Al Kaabi, S. and Al Lawati, F. and Al Namaani, K. and Al Serkal, Y. and Al-Busafi, S.A. and Al-Dabal, L. and Aleman, S. and Alghamdi, A.S. and Aljumah, A.A. and Al-Romaihi, H.E. and Andersson, M.I. and Arendt, V. and Arkkila, P. and Assiri, A.M. and Baatarkhuu, O. and Bane, A. and Ben-Ari, Z. and Bergin, C. and Bessone, F. and Bihl, F. and Bizri, A.R. and Blachier, M. and Blasco, A.J. and Brandao Mello, C.E. and Bruggmann, P. and Brunton, C.R. and Calinas, F. and Chan, H.L.Y. and Chaudhry, A. and Cheinquer, H. and Chen, C.-J. and Chien, R.-N. and Choi, M.S. and Christensen, P.B. and Chuang, W.-L. and Chulanov, V. and Cisneros, L. and Clausen, M.R. and Cramp, M.E. and Craxi, A. and Croes, E.A. and Dalgard, O. and Daruich, J.R. and De Ledinghen, V. and Dore, G.J. and El-Sayed, M.H. and Ergor, G. and Esmat, G. and Estes, C. and Falconer, K. and Farag, E. and Ferraz, M.L.G. and Ferreira, P.R. and Flisiak, R. and Frankova, S. and Gamkrelidze, I. and Gane, E. and Garcia-Samaniego, J. and Khan, A.G. and Gountas, I. and Goldis, A. and Gottfredsson, M. and Grebely, J. and Gschwantler, M. and Guimaraes Pessoa, M. and Gunter, J. and Hajarizadeh, B. and Hajelssedig, O. and Hamid, S. and Hamoudi, W. and Hatzakis, A. and Himatt, S.M. and Hofer, H. and Hrstic, I. and Hui, Y.-T. and Hunyady, B. and Idilman, R. and Jafri, W. and Jahis, R. and Janjua, N.Z. and Jarčuška, P. and Jeruma, A. and Jonasson, J.G. and Kamel, Y. and Kao, J.-H. and Kaymakoglu, S. and Kershenobich, D. and Khamis, J. and Kim, Y.S. and Kondili, L. and Koutoubi, Z. and Krajden, M. and Krarup, H. and Lai, M.-S. and Laleman, W. and Lao, W.-C. and Lavanchy, D. and Lazaro, P. and Leleu, H. and Lesi, O. and Lesmana, L.A. and Li, M. and Liakina, V. and Lim, Y.-S. and Luksic, B. and Mahomed, A. and Maimets, M. and Makara, M. and Malu, A.O. and Marinho, R.T. and Marotta, P. and Mauss, S. and Memon, M.S. and Mendes Correa, M.C. and Mendez-Sanchez, N. and Merat, S. and Metwally, A.M. and Mohamed, R. and Moreno, C. and Mourad, F.H. and Mullhaupt, B. and Murphy, K. and Nde, H. and Njouom, R. and Nonkovic, D. and Norris, S. and Obekpa, S. and Oguche, S. and Olafsson, S. and Oltman, M. and Omede, O. and Omuemu, C. and Opare-Sem, O. and Ovrehus, A.L.H. and Owusu-Ofori, S. and Oyunsuren, T.S. and Papatheodoridis, G. and Pasini, K. and Peltekian, K.M. and Phillips, R.O. and Pimenov, N. and Poustchi, H. and Prabdial-Sing, N. and Qureshi, H. and Ramji, A. and Razavi-Shearer, D. and Razavi-Shearer, K. and Redae, B. and Reesink, H.W. and Ridruejo, E. and Robbins, S. and Roberts, L.R. and Roberts, S.K. and Rosenberg, W.M. and Roudot-Thoraval, F. and Ryder, S.D. and Safadi, R. and Sagalova, O. and Salupere, R. and Sanai, F.M. and Sanchez Avila, J.F. and Saraswat, V. and Sarmento-Castro, R. and Sarrazin, C. and Schmelzer, J.D. and Schreter, I. and Seguin-Devaux, C. and Shah, S.R. and Sharara, A.I. and Sharma, M. and Shevaldin, A. and Shiha, G.E. and Sievert, W. and Sonderup, M. and Souliotis, K. and Speiciene, D. and Sperl, J. and Starkel, P. and Stauber, R.E. and Stedman, C. and Struck, D. and Su, T.-H. and Sypsa, V. and Tan, S.-S. and Tanaka, J. and Thompson, A.J. and Tolmane, I. and Tomasiewicz, K. and Valantinas, J. and Van Damme, P. and Van Der Meer, A.J. and Van Thiel, I. and Van Vlierberghe, H. and Vince, A. and Vogel, W. and Wedemeyer, H. and Weis, N. and Wong, V.W.S. and Yaghi, C. and Yosry, A. and Yuen, M.-F. and Yunihastuti, E. and Yusuf, A. and Zuckerman, E. and Razavi, H. and The Polaris Observatory HCV Collaborators",
    journal = "The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology",
    year = "2017",
    volume = "2",
    number = "3",
    pages = "161-176",
    publisher = "Elsevier Ireland Ltd",
    doi = "10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9",
    keywords = "virus RNA, Africa;  aging;  Article;  Delphi study;  disease model;  genotype;  geographic distribution;  hepatitis C;  Hepatitis C virus genotype 1;  Hepatitis C virus genotype 3;  Hepatitis C virus genotype 4;  high income country;  human;  low income country;  middle income country;  mortality;  nonhuman;  prevalence;  priority journal;  viremia;  virus load;  chronic hepatitis C;  cost of illness;  disease eradication;  genetics;  global health;  prevalence;  statistics and numerical data;  viremia, Cost of Illness;  Delphi Technique;  Disease Eradication;  Genotype;  Global Health;  Hepatitis C, Chronic;  Humans;  Prevalence;  Viremia",
    abstract = "Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd"
}