@article{3219392,
    title = "Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study",
    author = "Wu, Y. and Li, S. and Zhao, Q. and Wen, B. and Gasparrini, A. and Tong, S. and Overcenco, A. and Urban, A. and Schneider, A. and Entezari, A. and Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M. and Zanobetti, A. and Analitis, A. and Zeka, A. and Tobias, A. and Nunes, B. and Alahmad, B. and Armstrong, B. and Forsberg, B. and Pan, S.-C. and Íñiguez, C. and Ameling, C. and De la Cruz Valencia, C. and Åström, C. and Houthuijs, D. and Van Dung, D. and Royé, D. and Indermitte, E. and Lavigne, E. and Mayvaneh, F. and Acquaotta, F. and de'Donato, F. and Rao, S. and Sera, F. and Carrasco-Escobar, G. and Kan, H. and Orru, H. and Kim, H. and Holobaca, I.-H. and Kyselý, J. and Madureira, J. and Schwartz, J. and Jaakkola, J.J.K. and Katsouyanni, K. and Hurtado Diaz, M. and Ragettli, M.S. and Hashizume, M. and Pascal, M. and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, M. and Ortega, N.V. and Ryti, N. and Scovronick, N. and Michelozzi, P. and Correa, P.M. and Goodman, P. and Nascimento Saldiva, P.H. and Abrutzky, R. and Osorio, S. and Dang, T.N. and Colistro, V. and Huber, V. and Lee, W. and Seposo, X. and Honda, Y. and Guo, Y.L. and Bell, M.L. and Guo, Y.",
    journal = "The Lancet Planetary Health",
    year = "2022",
    volume = "6",
    number = "5",
    pages = "e410-e421",
    publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",
    doi = "10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0",
    keywords = "Africa;  article;  Asia;  Australia and New Zealand;  awareness;  controlled study;  Europe;  excess mortality;  human;  major clinical study;  medical research;  mortality;  public health;  regression model;  time series analysis",
    abstract = "Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6). Interpretation: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license"
}