TY - JOUR
TI - Phylodynamics helps to evaluate the impact of an HIV prevention intervention
AU - Vasylyeva, T.I.
AU - Zarebski, A.
AU - Smyrnov, P.
AU - Williams, L.D.
AU - Korobchuk, A.
AU - Liulchuk, M.
AU - Zadorozhna, V.
AU - Nikolopoulos, G.
AU - Paraskevis, D.
AU - Schneider, J.
AU - Skaathun, B.
AU - Pybus, O.G.
AU - Friedman, S.R.
JO - Virus Bulletin
PY - 2020
VL - 12
TODO - 4
SP - null
PB - MDPI AG
SN - 0956-9979
TODO - 10.3390/v12040469
TODO - age;  article;  city;  Human immunodeficiency virus;  major clinical study;  molecular epidemiology;  nonhuman;  virus load;  classification;  genetics;  human;  Human immunodeficiency virus 1;  Human immunodeficiency virus infection;  phylogeny;  virology, Pol protein, HIV Infections;  HIV-1;  Humans;  Molecular Epidemiology;  Phylogeny;  pol Gene Products, Human Immunodeficiency Virus;  Viral Load
TODO - Assessment of the long-term population-level effects of HIV interventions is an ongoing public health challenge. Following the implementation of a Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) in Odessa, Ukraine, in 2013-2016, we obtained HIV pol gene sequences and used phylogenetics to identify HIV transmission clusters. We further applied the birth-death skyline model to the sequences from Odessa (n = 275) and Kyiv (n = 92) in order to estimate changes in the epidemic's effective reproductive number (Re) and rate of becoming uninfectious (δ). We identified 12 transmission clusters in Odessa; phylogenetic clustering was correlated with younger age and higher average viral load at the time of sampling. Estimated Re were similar in Odessa and Kyiv before the initiation of TRIP; Re started to decline in 2013 and is now below Re = 1 in Odessa (Re = 0.4, 95%HPD 0.06-0.75), but not in Kyiv (Re = 2.3, 95%HPD 0.2-5.4). Similarly, estimates of δ increased in Odessa after the initiation of TRIP. Given that both cities shared the same HIV prevention programs in 2013-2019, apart from TRIP, the observed changes in transmission parameters are likely attributable to the TRIP intervention. We propose that molecular epidemiology analysis can be used as a post-intervention effectiveness assessment tool. © 2020 by the authors.
ER -