TY - JOUR
TI - A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert
consultation
AU - Iftekhar, Emil Nafis
AU - Priesemann, Viola
AU - Balling, Rudi
AU - Bauer,
AU - Simon
AU - Beutels, Philippe
AU - Valdez, Andre Calero
AU - Cuschieri,
AU - Sarah
AU - Czypionka, Thomas
AU - Dumpis, Uga
AU - Glaab, Enrico
AU - Grill,
AU - Eva
AU - Hanson, Claudia
AU - Hotulainen, Pirta
AU - Klimek, Peter and
AU - Kretzschmar, Mirjam
AU - Kruger, Tyll
AU - Krutzinna, Jenny
AU - Low,
AU - Nicola
AU - Machado, Helena
AU - Martins, Carlos
AU - McKee, Martin and
AU - Mohr, Sebastian Bernd
AU - Nassehi, Armin
AU - Perc, Matjaz
AU - Petelos,
AU - Elena
AU - Pickersgill, Martyn
AU - Prainsack, Barbara
AU - Rocklov, Joacim
AU - and Schernhammer, Eva
AU - Staines, Anthony
AU - Szczurek, Ewa and
AU - Tsiodras, Sotirios
AU - Van Gucht, Steven
AU - Willeit, Peter
JO - LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-EUROPE
PY - 2021
VL - 8
TODO - null
SP - null
PB - Elsevier
SN - null
TODO - 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185
TODO - COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; expert survey; Delphi study; group forecast;
non-pharmaceutical interventions; variants of concern; Europe; policy
advice
TODO - How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the
coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key
aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.
The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of
national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of
variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain
unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and
population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting
restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This
challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission
given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In
autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread
again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The
incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care
units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive
level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects
combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide
a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. (c)
2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access
article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
ER -