TY - JOUR
TI - Prediction of Early Symptom Remission in Two Independent Samples of
First-Episode Psychosis Patients Using Machine Learning
AU - Soldatos, Rigas F.
AU - Cearns, Micah
AU - Nielsen, Mette O.
AU - Kollias,
AU - Costas
AU - Xenaki, Lida-Alkisti
AU - Stefanatou, Pentagiotissa
AU - Ralli,
AU - Irene
AU - Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos
AU - Hatzimanolis, Alex and
AU - Kosteletos, Ioannis
AU - Vlachos, Ilias I.
AU - Selakovic, Mirjana and
AU - Foteli, Stefania
AU - Nianiakas, Nikolaos
AU - Mantonakis, Leonidas and
AU - Triantafyllou, Theoni F.
AU - Ntigridaki, Aggeliki
AU - Ermiliou, Vanessa
AU - and Voulgaraki, Marina
AU - Psarra, Evaggelia
AU - Sorensen, Mikkel E. and
AU - Bojesen, Kirsten B.
AU - Tangmose, Karen
AU - Sigvard, Anne M. and
AU - Ambrosen, Karen S.
AU - Meritt, Toni
AU - Syeda, Warda
AU - Glenthoj, Birte
AU - Y.
AU - Koutsouleris, Nikolaos
AU - Pantelis, Christos
AU - Ebdrup, Bjorn
AU - H.
AU - Stefanis, Nikos
JO - Schizophrenia Bulletin
PY - 2022
VL - 48
TODO - 1
SP - 122-133
PB - Oxford University Press
SN - 0586-7614, 1745-1701
TODO - 10.1093/schbul/sbab107
TODO - first-episode; psychosis; psychosis; schizophrenia; remission;
prediction; psychopathology; machine learning
TODO - Background: Validated clinical prediction models of short-term remission
in psychosis are lacking. Our aim was to develop a clinical prediction
model aimed at predicting 4-6-week remission following a first episode
of psychosis.Method: Baseline clinical data from the Athens First
Episode Research Study was used to develop a Support Vector Machine
prediction model of 4-week symptom remission in first-episode psychosis
patients using repeated nested cross-validation. This model was further
tested to predict 6-week remission in a sample of two independent,
consecutive Danish first-episode cohorts.Results: Of the 179
participants in Athens, 120 were male with an average age of 25.8 years
and average duration of untreated psychosis of 32.8 weeks. 62.9% were
antipsychotic-naive. Fifty-seven percent attained remission after 4
weeks. In the Danish cohort, 31% attained remission. Eleven clinical
scale items were selected in the Athens 4-week remission cohort. These
included the Duration of Untreated Psychosis, Personal and Social
Performance Scale, Global Assessment of Functioning and eight items from
the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. This model significantly
predicted 4-week remission status (area under the receiver operator
characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) = 71.45, P <.0001). It also predicted
6-week remission status in the Danish cohort (ROC-AUC = 67.74, P
<.0001), demonstrating reliability.Conclusions: Using items from common
and validated clinical scales, our model significantly predicted early
remission in patients with firstepisode psychosis. Although replicated
in an independent cohort, forward testing between machine learning
models and clinicians’ assessment should be undertaken to evaluate the
possible utility as a routine clinical tool.
ER -