TY - JOUR
TI - Real-time estimation of R0 for COVID-19 spread
AU - Simos, T.E.
AU - Tsitouras, C.
AU - Kovalnogov, V.N.
AU - Fedorov, R.V.
AU - Generalov, D.A.
JO - Trends in Mathematics
PY - 2021
VL - 9
TODO - 6
SP - null
PB - MDPI AG
SN - null
TODO - 10.3390/math9060664
TODO - null
TODO - We propose a real-time approximation of R0 in an SIR-type model that applies to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. A very useful direct formula expressing R0 is found. Then, various type of models are considered, namely, finite differences, cubic splines, Piecewise Cubic Hermite interpolation and linear least squares approximation. Preserving the monotonicity of the formula under consideration proves to be of crucial importance. This latter property is preferred over accuracy, since it maintains positive R0. Only the Linear Least Squares technique guarantees this, and is finally proposed here. Tests on real COVID-19 data confirm the usefulness of our approach. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
ER -