TY - JOUR TI - A predictive model for risk of early grade ≥ 3 infection in patients with multiple myeloma not eligible for transplant: Analysis of the FIRST trial AU - Dumontet, C. AU - Hulin, C. AU - Dimopoulos, M.A. AU - Belch, A. AU - Dispenzieri, A. AU - Ludwig, H. AU - Rodon, P. AU - Van Droogenbroeck, J. AU - Qiu, L. AU - Cavo, M. AU - Van De Velde, A. AU - Lahuerta, J.J. AU - Allangba, O. AU - Lee, J.H. AU - Boyle, E. AU - Perrot, A. AU - Moreau, P. AU - Manier, S. AU - Attal, M. AU - Roussel, M. AU - Mohty, M. AU - Mary, J.Y. AU - Civet, A. AU - Costa, B. AU - Tinel, A. AU - Gaston-Mathé, Y. AU - Facon, T. JO - Leukemia Research PY - 2018 VL - 32 TODO - 6 SP - 1404-1413 PB - Nature Publishing Group SN - 0145-2126 TODO - 10.1038/s41375-018-0133-x TODO - beta 2 microglobulin; dexamethasone; hemoglobin; lactate dehydrogenase; lenalidomide; melphalan; prednisone; thalidomide, adult; Article; bacteremia; bacterial infection; cohort analysis; comparative study; controlled study; early infection; early infection; hemoglobin blood level; high risk population; human; infection; infection risk; lactate dehydrogenase blood level; low drug dose; low risk population; major clinical study; multicenter study; multiple cycle treatment; multiple myeloma; open study; overall survival; prediction; prognosis; protein blood level; randomized controlled trial; scoring system; viremia; complication; infection; infection control; multiple myeloma; risk factor; statistical model, Humans; Infection; Infection Control; Logistic Models; Multiple Myeloma; Risk Factors TODO - Infections are a major cause of death in patients with multiple myeloma. A post hoc analysis of the phase 3 FIRST trial was conducted to characterize treatment-emergent (TE) infections and study risk factors for TE grade ≥ 3 infection. The number of TE infections/month was highest during the first 4 months of treatment (defined as early infection). Of 1613 treated patients, 340 (21.1%) experienced TE grade ≥ 3 infections in the first 18 months and 56.2% of these patients experienced their first grade ≥ 3 infection in the first 4 months. Risk of early infection was similar regardless of treatment. Based on the analyses of data in 1378 patients through multivariate logistic regression, a predictive model of first TE grade ≥ 3 infection in the first 4 months retained Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and serum β 2 -microglobulin, lactate dehydrogenase, and hemoglobin levels to define high- and low-risk groups showing significantly different rates of infection (24.0% vs. 7.0%, respectively; P < 0.0001). The predictive model was validated with data from three clinical trials. This predictive model of early TE grade ≥ 3 infection may be applied in the clinical setting to guide infection monitoring and strategies for infection prevention. © 2018 The Author(s). ER -