TY - JOUR
TI - Predictive performance of newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in treated Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B
AU - Papatheodoridis, G.V.
AU - Dalekos, G.N.
AU - Idilman, R.
AU - Sypsa, V.
AU - Van Boemmel, F.
AU - Buti, M.
AU - Calleja, J.L.
AU - Goulis, J.
AU - Manolakopoulos, S.
AU - Loglio, A.
AU - Papatheodoridi, M.
AU - Gatselis, N.
AU - Veelken, R.
AU - Lopez-Gomez, M.
AU - Hansen, B.E.
AU - Savvidou, S.
AU - Kourikou, A.
AU - Vlachogiannakos, J.
AU - Galanis, K.
AU - Yurdaydin, C.
AU - Esteban, R.
AU - Janssen, H.L.A.
AU - Berg, T.
AU - Lampertico, P.
JO - JHEP Reports
PY - 2021
VL - 3
TODO - 3
SP - null
PB - Elsevier B.V.
SN - null
TODO - 10.1016/j.jhepr.2021.100290
TODO - albumin;  entecavir;  tenofovir disoproxil, adult;  age;  age albumin sex liver cirrhosis score;  Article;  Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk score;  cancer incidence;  cancer risk;  carcinogenesis;  Caucasian;  chronic hepatitis B;  cirrhosis age male gender diabetes score;  clinical practice;  cohort analysis;  compensated liver cirrhosis;  female;  follow up;  gender;  hepatocellular carcinoma risk estimating score in chronic hepatitis B under entecavir.;  high risk patient;  human;  liver cell carcinoma;  low risk patient;  major clinical study;  male;  middle aged;  modified platelets age gnder score;  predictive value;  predictor variable;  scoring system;  sensitivity and specificity;  thrombocyte;  treatment duration
TODO - Background & Aims: Recently, several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but they have not been assessed in non-Asian patients. We evaluated the predictability and comparative utility of our PAGE-B and recent Asian HCC risk scores in nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-treated adult Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without well-documented compensated cirrhosis but not previous diagnosis of HCC. Methods: We included 1,951 patients treated with entecavir/tenofovir and followed up for a median of 7.6 years. The c-statistic was used to estimate the predictability of PAGE-B, HCC-Rescue, CAMD, mPAGE-B, and AASL score for HCC development within 5 or 10 years. The low- and high-risk group cut-offs were used for estimation of negative (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV), respectively. Results: HCC developed in 103/1,951 (5.3%) patients during the first 5 years and in another 39/1,428 (2.7%) patients between years 5 and 10. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative HCC rates were 3.3%, 5.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. All scores offered good 5- and 10-year HCC prediction (c-statistic: 0.78–0.82). NPVs were always >99% (99.3–100%), whereas PPV ranged between 13% and 24%. Conclusions: In NA-treated Caucasian patients with CHB including compensated cirrhosis, HCC risk scores developed in NA-treated Asian patients offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis, but the addition of albumin in mPAGE-B score does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well compensated liver disease. Lay summary: Several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In Caucasian patients with CHB treated with oral antivirals, newer Asian HCC risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. For clinical practice, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis. © 2021 The Authors
ER -