TY - JOUR
TI - The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying—the head and neck cancer model
AU - Matos, L.L.
AU - Forster, C.H.Q.
AU - Marta, G.N.
AU - Castro Junior, G.
AU - Ridge, J.A.
AU - Hirata, D.
AU - Miranda-Filho, A.
AU - Hosny, A.
AU - Sanabria, A.
AU - Gregoire, V.
AU - Patel, S.G.
AU - Fagan, J.J.
AU - D’Cruz, A.K.
AU - Licitra, L.
AU - Mehanna, H.
AU - Hao, S.-P.
AU - Psyrri, A.
AU - Porceddu, S.
AU - Galloway, T.J.
AU - Golusinski, W.
AU - Lee, N.Y.
AU - Shiguemori, E.H.
AU - Matieli, J.E.
AU - Shiguemori, A.P.A.C.
AU - Diamantino, L.R.
AU - Schiaveto, L.F.
AU - Leão, L.
AU - Castro, A.F.
AU - Carvalho, A.L.
AU - Kowalski, L.P.
JO - Cancer Causes and Control
PY - 2021
VL - 32
TODO - 5
SP - 459-471
PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
SN - 0957-5243, 1573-7225
TODO - 10.1007/s10552-021-01411-7
TODO - Article;  cancer model;  cancer mortality;  cancer patient;  coronavirus disease 2019;  demography;  disease simulation;  geographic distribution;  head and neck cancer;  health care delivery;  health care system;  health service;  human;  major clinical study;  mathematical model;  mortality risk;  pandemic;  priority journal;  risk evaluation and mitigation strategy;  risk reduction;  Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2;  therapy delay;  time to treatment;  widespread community transmission;  global health;  head and neck tumor;  health care delivery;  mortality;  risk factor;  squamous cell carcinoma;  theoretical model;  time to treatment, Carcinoma, Squamous Cell;  COVID-19;  Delivery of Health Care;  Global Health;  Head and Neck Neoplasms;  Humans;  Models, Theoretical;  Risk Factors;  SARS-CoV-2;  Time-to-Treatment
TODO - Purpose: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model. Methods: An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data. Results: The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation. Conclusions: This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
ER -