Development of an optimal methodology for forecasting forest fire behaviour in Greece

Doctoral Dissertation uoadl:1309360 440 Read counter

Τομέας Δυναμικής - Τεκτονικής - Εφαρμοσμένης Γεωλογίας
Library of the School of Science
Deposit date:
Αθανασίου Μιλτιάδης
Dissertation committee:
Ευθύμιος Λέκκας Καθηγητής ΕΚΠΑ (Επιβλέπων), Νίκη Ευελπίδου Αναπληρώτρια Καθηγήτρια ΕΚΠΑ,ΓαβριήλΞανθόπουλος Αναπληρωτής Ερευνητής ΕΛΓΟ 'ΔΗΜΗΤΡΑ'
Original Title:
Συμβολή στην επιλογή της καλύτερης μεθόδου πρόβλεψης της συμπεριφοράς δασικών πυρκαγιών για την Ελλάδα
Translated title:
Development of an optimal methodology for forecasting forest fire behaviour in Greece
The objective of this dissertation was to improve wildfire behaviour prediction
in Greece for supporting fire management (prevention and suppression) and for
improving fire fighter safety.
A database of one hundred and ninety six fire behaviour data records was
developed from field observations and measurements made during the evolution of
a large number of wildfires in Greece, in eight fire seasons (2007-2014). This,
among others, allowed comparison of observed versus predicted fire behavior,
using the BehavePlus and CFIS systems, evaluation of the predictions of three
spatial wildfire spread simulation systems, namely FARSITE, G-FMIS and FLogA,
against actual observations, development of empirical fire behavior prediction
equations for specific fuel types, and identification of relative humidity
conditions for the occurrence of spot fires. The results of the dissertation
were incorporated into a spreadsheet which can be used as a Decision Support
System (DSS).
Also, the empirical capacity of firefighters, Forest Service employees and
volunteers, with varying firefighting involvement and experience, to assess
expected fire behaviour for a set of conditions was examined through a
specially designed questionnaire that was answered by 60 respondents. The
analysis showed that fire behaviour in fine fuels was seriously underestimated,
a case of eruptive fire behaviour associated with a box canyon was not
recognized and there were weaknesses on telling the difference between the
behaviour of a heading and a flanking fire. The results support the conclusion
that fire behaviour training is needed for filling the knowledge gaps which
were revealed.
Based on the findings of the study, a table was assembled suggesting the
wildfire behavior prediction method of choice for each fuel and fire type. A
second table was also developed identifying the most appropriate prediction
method for use by the authorities for fire prevention, suppression and training
purposes. Limitations, weaknesses and strengths are also reported, and cases
for which there is no available wildfire behavior prediction method are
Forest fire behaviour prediction, Fuel models, Spotting, Decision Support System, Greece
Number of index pages:
vii - xiii
Contains images:
Number of references:
Number of pages:
xxii, 408

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