Searching the best expression variable of temperature effect on health

Postgraduate Thesis uoadl:1310711 652 Read counter

Unit:
Κατεύθυνση Βιοστατιστική
Library of the School of Health Sciences
Deposit date:
2014-03-13
Year:
2013
Author:
Ροδοπούλου Σοφία
Supervisors info:
Κατσουγιάννη Κλέα Καθηγήτρια, Μπουρνέτας Απόστολος Καθηγητής, Σαμόλη Ευαγγελία Λέκτορας
Original Title:
Διερεύνηση και αναζήτηση βέλτιστων μεταβλητών έκφρασης της επίδρασης της θερμοκρασίας στην υγεία
Languages:
Greek
Translated title:
Searching the best expression variable of temperature effect on health
Summary:
There is no consensus on the best index of temperature and humidity in models
investigating health effects of meteorological variables. We used time-series
data from three European cities with different meteorological conditions
(Athens, London, Rome) to evaluate which temperature and humidity index most
adequately predicts mortality.
City-specific Poisson regression models were fitted separately for the cold and
warm periods. Mean, minimum and maximum temperature adjusting for relative
humidity, and the same measures for apparent temperature under different lag
structures, were compared. We used linear terms of temperature for the cold and
threshold terms for the warm period. We compared models using model fit
criteria.
There was no uniformly best index for all cities and periods. The index with
the best model fit for the cold period was minimum daily temperature for
London and Rome, average of lags 0-13 and 3-6 respectively, while mean
temperature, average of lags 0-13, predicted mortality better in Athens. In the
warm period, mean daily temperature, average of lags 0-3, was the best index
for Athens and Rome, while maximum apparent temperature (with the same lag
structure) provided a better fit for mortality in London.
Our results suggest that, although the optimal index may differ by city,
ambient temperature, adjusted for humidity, performed slightly better than
apparent in most cases. The results also confirm that the effects of
temperature are more prolonged in cold period compared to the warm period
regardless of the index used.
Keywords:
Aambient temperature, Apparent temperature, Relative humidity, Distributed lags, Mortality
Index:
No
Number of index pages:
0
Contains images:
Yes
Number of references:
87
Number of pages:
219
File:
File access is restricted only to the intranet of UoA.

document.pdf
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