Unit:
Κατεύθυνση Φυσική Περιβάλλοντος (ΕΦΑΡΜΟΣΜΕΝΗ ΦΥΣΙΚΗ)Library of the School of Science
Supervisors info:
Γεωργία Παπαϊωάννου Επίκουρη Καθηγήτρια ΕΚΠΑ (Επιβλέπουσα), Χρήστος Γιαννακόπουλος Ερευνητής Α΄Εθνικού Αστεροσκοπείου Αθηνών, Πέτρος Κερκίδης Καθηγητής Γεωπονικού Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών
Original Title:
Μελέτη των τάσεων της εξατμισοδιοαπνοής αναφοράς στην Ελλάδα με τη χρήση των προβλέψεων μοντέλου κλιματικών αλλαγών
Translated title:
Trends of reference evapotranspiration over Greece using regional climate model projections
Summary:
Trends of reference evapotranspiration (ΕΤο) over Greece are examined based on
projections of the RAMCO2/KNMI regional climate model for the future period
2011-2100.
Reference evapotranspiration is calculated over 29 stations all over Greece for
the control period 1979-2004 on a monthly basis, using the Hargreaves-Samani
(HS), Droogers-Allen (DAHS) methods and the Reference Evapotranspiration Model
for Complex Terrains (REMCT), using measurements of temperature and
precipitation or their projections from the regional climate model. The results
indicate that a bias correction procedure applied in the meteorological
parameters that are used in the calculation of ETo is necessary.
The method DBS (Distribution Based Scaling) is being used for the bias
correction of temperature and precipitation projections. The method considers
that the projected parameters and the measurments must follow the same
distribution functions. Mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures are
corrected using normal distribution, while double gamma distribution is
considered for daily precipitation. The corrected values for each parameter in
the form that is necessary are examined and ETo is recalculated.
The trends of ETo, calculated with the REMCT, are examined during the control
period, the future period 2011-2100 and the future subperiods of 2011-2040,
2041-2070 and 2071-2100. This model has proved to be in better agreement with
the ETo estimated with the Penman-Monteith method all over Greece. Trends of
the meteorological parameters acquired for the estimation of ETo are also
examined. Positive trends are reported for ETo, accompanied mostly with
negative precipitation trends, increasing temperatures and decrease in the
number of rainy days in a month for the control period. Same results are
conducted for the future period and subperiods, except from the subperiod
2071-2100 during which the precipitation and number of rainy days in a month
trends are inverted for nearly half of the stations.
Keywords:
Distribution based scaling, Reference evapotranspiration, Gamma distribution, Bias correction
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