Ερευνητικό υλικό ΕΚΠΑ

SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk
of cardiovascular disease in Europe

Αγγλικά

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an
updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and
non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without
previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.
Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using
individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684
individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing
risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood
pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions
in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating
models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor
distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD
mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external
validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European
countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the
derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices
ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk
varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated
10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood
pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and
HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk
countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2%
for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk
countries.
Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to
predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances
the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD
across Europe.

2021

Hageman, Steven
Pennells, Lisa
Ojeda, Francisco
Kaptoge,
Stephen
Kuulasmaa, Kari
de Vries, Tamar
Xu, Zhe
Kee,
Frank
Chung, Ryan
Wood, Angela
McEvoy, John William and
Veronesi, Giovanni
Bolton, Thomas
Dendale, Paul
Ference,
Brian A.
Halle, Martin
Timmis, Adam
Vardas, Panos and
Danesh, John
Graham, Ian
Salomaa, Veikko
Visseren, Frank and
De Bacquer, Dirk
Blankenberg, Stefan
Dorresteijn, Jannick
Di
Angelantonio, Emanuele
Achenbach, Stephan
Aleksandrova,
Krasimira
Amiano, Pilar
Amouyel, Philippe
Andersson, Jonas
and Bakker, Stephan J. L.
Costa, Rui Bebiano Da Providencia and
Beulens, Joline W. J.
Blaha, Michael
Bobak, Martin
Boer,
Jolanda M. A.
Bonet, Catalina
Bonnet, Fabrice and
Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine
Braaten, Tonje
Brenner, Hermann
and Brunner, Fabian
Brunner, Eric J.
Brunstrom, Mattias and
Buring, Julie
Butterworth, Adam S.
Capkova, Nadezda
Cesana,
Giancarlo
Chrysohoou, Christina
Colorado-Yohar, Sandra
Cook,
Nancy R.
Cooper, Cyrus
Dahm, Christina C.
Davidson, Karina
and Dennison, Elaine
Di Castelnuovo, Augusto
Donfrancesco,
Chiara
Doerr, Marcus
Dorynska, Agnieszka
Eliasson, Mats and
Engstrom, Gunnar
Ferrari, Pietro
Ferrario, Marco
Ford, Ian
and Fu, Michael
Gansevoort, Ron T.
Giampaoli, Simona
Gillum,
Richard F.
de la Camara, Agustin Gomez
Grassi, Guido and
Hansson, Per-Olof
Huculeci, Radu
Hveem, Kristian
Iacoviello,
Licia
Ikram, M. Kamran
Jorgensen, Torben
Joseph, Bijoy and
Jousilahti, Pekka
Jukema, J. Wouter
Kaaks, Rudolf
Katzke,
Verena
Kavousi, Maryam
Kiechl, Stefan
Klotsche, Jens and
Koenig, Wolfgang
Kronmal, Richard A.
Kubinova, Ruzena and
Kucharska-Newton, Anna
Lall, Kristi
Lehmann, Nils
Leistner,
David
Linneberg, Allan
Lora Pablos, David
Lorenz, Thiess and
Lu, Wentian
Luksiene, Dalia
Lyngbakken, Magnus
Magnussen,
Christina
Malyutina, Sofia
Marin Ibanez, Alejandro
Masala,
Giovanna
Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.
Matsushita, Kuni
Meade, Tom
W.
Melander, Olle
Meyer, Haakon E.
Moons, Karel G. M. and
Moreno-Iribas, Conchi
Muller, David
Muenzel, Thomas
Nikitin,
Yury
Nordestgaard, Borge G.
Omland, Torbjorn
Onland,
Charlotte
Overvad, Kim
Packard, Chris
Pajak, Andrzej and
Palmieri, Luigi
Panagiotakos, Demosthenes
Panico, Salvatore and
Perez-Cornago, Aurora
Peters, Annette
Pietila, Arto
Pikhart,
Hynek
Psaty, Bruce M.
Quarti-Trevano, Fosca
Quiros Garcia,
J. Ramon
Riboli, Elio
Ridker, Paul M.
Rodriguez, Beatriz and
Rodriguez-Barranco, Miguel
Rosengren, Annika
Roussel, Ronan and
Sacerdote, Carlotta
Sans, Susana
Sattar, Naveed
Schiborn,
Catarina
Schmidt, Boerge
Schoettker, Ben
Schulze, Matthias
and Schwartz, Joseph E.
Selmer, Randi Marie
Shea, Steven and
Shipley, Martin J.
Sieri, Sabina
Soderberg, Stefan
Sofat,
Reecha
Tamosiunas, Abdonas
Thorand, Barbara
Tillmann, Taavi
and Tjonneland, Anne
Tong, Tammy Y. N.
Trichopoulou, Antonia and
Tumino, Rosario
Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh
Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne and
Tzoulaki, Joanna
van der Heijden, Amber
van der Schouw, Yvonne
T.
Verschuren, W. M. Monique
Voelzke, Henry
Waldeyer,
Christoph
Wareham, Nicholas J.
Weiderpass, Elisabete and
Weidinger, Franz
Wild, Philipp
Willeit, Johann
Willeit,
Peter
Wilsgaard, Tom
Woodward, Mark
Zeller, Tanja
Zhang,
Dudan
Zhou, Bin
SCORE2 Working Grp
ESC Cardiovasc Risk
Collaboration

European Heart Journal

Oxford University Press

42

25

2439-2454

Risk prediction; Cardiovascular disease; Primary prevention; 10-year CVD
risk

https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehab309

10.1093/eurheartj/ehab309

https://pergamos.lib.uoa.gr/uoa/dl/object/3029295