Κατεύθυνση Βιοστατιστική
Library of the School of Health Sciences

2025-03-28

2025

Kokkinovasili Afroditi-Maria

Σαμόλη Ευαγγελία, Καθηγήτρια, Ιατρική Σχολή, ΕΚΠΑ
Δημακοπούλου Κωνσταντίνα, Διδάκτωρ, Ιατρική Σχολή, ΕΚΠΑ
Μιχαλόπουλος Νικόλαος, Καθηγητής, Τμήμα Χημείας, Πανεπιστήμιο Κρήτης

Αποτίμηση της ανεξάρτητης και αθροιστικής επίδρασης της βραχυχρόνιας έκθεσης στη συγκέντρωση ατμοσφαιρικών ρύπων στη θνησιμότητα, στην ευρύτερη περιοχή της Αθήνας για τα έτη 2015-2019

Greek

Assessment of the Independent and Cumulative Effect of Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollutant Concentrations on Mortality in the Greater Athens Area for the Years 2015-2020

Introduction: Epidemiological studies have investigated the effect of daily concentrations of particulate matter up to 2.5 µm diameter (PM2.5), up to 10 µm diameter (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on all-cause mortality. However, the effect of ultrafine particles of 0.1 to 2.5 µm (UFP) has not been adequately investigated. The aim of this study is to assess the independent and cumulative effect of short-term exposure to PM2.5, UFP and black carbon on mortality in the greater Athens area for the period 2015-2019.
Data-Methods: Daily mortality data from all causes except deaths from external causes (accidents, etc.) were collected from the Hellenic Statistical Service in the Greater Athens area in the years 2015-2019. The data concerning the daily average concentrations of air pollutants were taken from the National Observatory of Athens except for PM2.5 which was obtained from YPEKA. Generalized additive Poisson models were applied to investigate the effect of air pollutants on mortality and to investigate seasonal trends of short-term effects we included interaction terms (day, month, time) in the model. The cumulative effect on air pollutant concentration on mortality was calculated from a model containing all pollutants UFP, BC, PM2.5.
Results: The cumulative effect of mortality was 1.14% (95%CI: -2.31%,4.59%) for an increase of an interquartile range (IQR) of 7.78 µg/m3 in PM2.5, 4701.20 N/cm3 in UFP and 1.41 µg/m3 in BC. The independent effect of BC, overall and from fossil fuel or biomass combustion and of UFP pollutants was found to be positively associated with total non-accidental mortality. Specifically, a 1.41 µg/m3 (IQR) increase in BC concentration on the previous day was associated with a 1.66% (95% CI: 0.72%, 2.59%) increase in mortality. Similarly, for a 1.07 µg/m3 increase in BC from fossil fuel, mortality increased by 1.84% (95% CI: 0.79%, 2.90%) and for an increase 0.33 µg/m3 in BC from burning biomass, the increase in mortality was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.23%, 1.24%). For 4701.20 N/cm3 increase in UFP (ultrafine particles), an increase in mortality of 1.7% (95% CI: 0.20%, 3.24%) was observed. Following adjustment for PM2.5, all effects decreased and were not statistically significant.
Conclusions: Statistically significant effects of short-term exposure to UFP and black carbon on total mortality of residents of the Greater Athens area were found for the period 2015-2019. An important observation is that the results showed that black carbon from fossil fuels had greater effects than that from biomass burning. In addition, UFP and black carbon derived from fossil fuels had the same magnitude of effects indicating that air pollution from vehicle traffic is likely to be more harmful to health. Further, the independent effect of UFP and black carbon shows less significance when compared to the cumulative effect of all air pollutants together. This underlines the importance of the overall exposure to air pollution and the combined effect of different types of pollutants on mortality, despite the existence of separate effects of each factor.

Health Sciences

Suspended particulate matter, UFP, PM2.5, Mortality, Black carbon, Short-term exposure, Air pollutants, Cumulative effect, Independent effect, Time series, Gam models

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https://pergamos.lib.uoa.gr/uoa/dl/object/3476753