Supervisors info:
Δ. Παπανικολάου, Καθηγητής ΕΚΠΑ, Ε. Λέκκας, Καθηγητής ΕΚΠΑ, Γ. Ξανθόπουλος, Ερευνητής Γ ΕΘΙΑΓΕ
Summary:
During the last 50 years in Greece, 64.374 incidents of wildfires have occurred
which burnt a total area of 1,738,819.1 Ha (Ministry of Rural Development and
Food, 2009), but also have burnt properties and the most important, human lives
have been lost. The average number of deaths from fire and flames, generally in
any type of fire, for the period 2000-2006 was amounted to 105 deaths. In the
year 2007 the number of deaths arose to 192 (National Statistical Service),
considering the special and unprecedented conditions of forest fires in the
country during that summer.
Using the historical data of forest fires and utilizing evidence with the
suitable modern scientific methods, an achievable, at all levels of
administrative division, account and estimation of the impacts of wildfires in
a series of years, is taking place. Moreover, a new factor helping to conclude
to a better forest firefighting strategy for the future is included; the
knowledge of past.
In the present Thesis, utilizing the administrative decisions that declare
reforested areas and which are disclosed in the Issue D of the Official
Government Gazette, a method-procedure is followed that takes place for the
first time in Greece in this study, that records and maps the incidents of
destruction and degradation (Wildfires, Land reclamation, Deforestation etc.)
for the period 1985-2008 using G.I.S. These incidents have occurred in
Cephalonia, which was chosen as a study area.
Events of forest fires are analyzed by focusing on the specific topographical
features and other conditions that exist at both the rest of the island and
burnt areas. The processing of the factors such as terrain, slope, aspect,
vegetation, heat load and solar radiation of the area, and also the human
factor locally estimated, have been initially calculated and set the flow of
analysis for further utilization of the data in order finally to estimate the
ignition and propagation risk.
The estimation of ignition and propagation risk has been based on a previous
model proposed by Chuvieco and Salas in 1994, and furthermore on the analysis
of the historical data distribution of the burnt areas according to each factor
taking place in the mentioned model separately. The classification of risk is
depended basically on the analysis of constant factors that affect ignition and
propagation of forest fires, such as topography. Finally produced risk maps
have been validated using historical data. The 85% of the burnt areas has been
found in extreme high and high risk areas- appreciation that seems to validate
the method and the analysis used. The present method, concerning the use of
Chuvieco’s model is demonstrative and under discussion, and has been used to
establish a way to utilize the historical burned areas’ data that can be found
in the Issue D of the Official Gazette, if they were indexed and mapped to all
the geographic regions of Greece.
Keywords:
Ignition Risk, Propagation Risk, Wildfires recording, Wildfires mapping, Βurnt areas
