Unit:
Κατεύθυνση Γεωλογική ΩκεανογραφίαLibrary of the School of Science
Supervisors info:
Παναγιώτης Νάστος, Καθηγητής, Τμήμα Γεωλογίας, Τομέας Γεωγραφίας και Κλιματολογίας
Παρασκευή Νομικού, Επίκουρη Καθηγήτρια, Τμήμα Γεωλογίας, Τομέας Γεωγραφίας και Κλιματολογίας
Original Title:
Εκτίμηση των μορφοδυναμικών και κοινονικο- οικονομικών επιπτώσεων της επικείμενης μεταβολής της θαλάσσιας στάθμης, λόγω κλιματικής αλλαγής, στις παραλίες του Kεντρικού και Βορείου Αιγαίου Πελάγους
Translated title:
Assessment of the morphodynamic and socioeconomic impacts of anticipated sea level rise due to climate change at the beaches of the Central and Northern Aegean
Summary:
The state of the Greek beaches is a major pillar for the sustainability and viability
of the country’s economy. Significant economic goods and services of Greeks
tourism industry are based on the touristic beaches.
The purpose of this thesis is the assessment of the morphodynamic and socioeconomic
impacts of anticipated sea level rise due to climate change at the
beaches of the Central and Northern Aegean; this is achieved by: (i) the collection
of data concerning the morphology and sedimentology (grain size) of the beaches
studied; (ii) the use of equations for wave prediction; and (ii) on the basis aof the
aforementioned data coastal profile retreat is estimated with the use of three
equations and for three IPCC scenarios for sea level rise. These senarios refer to
sea level rise of: (a) 0.15 m for 2040 according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, (b)
0.5 m for 2100 according to the RCP 4.5 scenario and (c) 0.7 m, for 2100 according
to the RCP 8.5 scenario, in relation to the mean sea level during the period 1985-
2005.
For the 10 beaches examined, model results showed that for a 0.15 m SLR coastal
retreat will range from 1.8 to 20.4 m, a 0.5 m SLR will result in 7.5-51.6 m beach
retreat and a rise of 0.7 m will result in 11.3-71.3 m retreat. These values are
related to beach loss as follows: (i) for a 0.15 m SLR, 50% of the beaches will lose
less than 20% of their area, 30% will lose 20-50% while 20% will lose over 70% of
the total area (one of which will be completely lost); (ii) for the case of a 0.5 m SLR,
40% will lose 20-50% while the remaining 60% will lose more than 50% of their
area, of which half will be lost completely; and (iii) for the 0.7m SLR scenario, 30%
of the beaches examined will lose 20-50% of their total area while the remaining
70% will lose more than 50%, with the 40% to reded completely.
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Finally, the financial impact of the predicted regression showed that for the 0.15
m SLR scenario, the total cost due to land loss corresponds to 6.2 M €. For the 0.5
m and 0.7 m SLR scenarios, estimated cost of loss is 13.64 M € and 17.18 M €,
respectively.
Main subject category:
Science
Other subject categories:
Environment
Keywords:
climate change, sea level rise, beach retreat, economic evaluation
