Supervisors info:
Μαρία Χατζάκη, Επίκουρη Καθηγήτρια, Τμήμα Γεωλογίας και Γεωπεριβάλλοντος, ΕΚΠΑ
Summary:
In this thesis, we study the changes in drought and precipitation regimes for selected areas of the Mediterranean during the period from 1971 to the end of the century. Mediterranean, due to its hydrogeomorphology, is particularly vulnerable to climate change, while future climate projections of several climate models agree on the increase of frequency and intensity of drought events.
Drought is a phenomenon that can appear in all regions with unknown duration. Its onset depends on various climatological, anthropogenic, and geological factors and it exhibits severe impacts, with most important the shortage of water for supply and irrigation purposes.
Case areas of Mediterranean countries (in Italy, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, and Jordan) with mainly of geogenic origin Cr(VI) contaminated waters, are selected as an example of a specific water pressure problem. For the climatic analysis, we used data of three different simulations of the regional climate model (RCM) RCA4 SMHI, under two future emission scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which became available via EURO-CORDEX initiative. For the study of drought, we applied the Standardized Precipitation Index SPI12, which is used as an indicator for reduced stream flow and reservoir storage.
From the comparison of future periods with the present climate and the respective trends analysis, it is found that future precipitation will exhibit a statistically significant decrease, while extreme and prolonged droughts are anticipated, signifying reductions in groundwater and reservoir levels.
Keywords:
Mediterranean, Climate Change, Climate Models, Precipitation, Drought Index
