Modeling forest fire risk in the blue economy under climate change: Application in tourism of Crete island

Postgraduate Thesis uoadl:3257680 5 Read counter

Unit:
Κατεύθυνση Γεωγραφία και Περιβάλλον
Library of the School of Science
Deposit date:
2023-01-22
Year:
2023
Author:
Tzouveleki Magdalini-Maria
Supervisors info:
Χατζάκη Μαρία, Επίκουρη Καθηγήτρια, Τμήμα Γεωλογίας και Γεωπεριβάλλοντος, Εθνικό και Καποδιστριακό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών
Αντωνίου Βαρβάρα, Εργαστηριακό Διδακτικό Προσωπικό, Τμήμα Γεωλογίας και Γεωπεριβάλλοντος, Εθνικό και Καποδιστριακό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών
Γιαννακόπουλος Χρήστος, Διευθυντής Ερευνών, Ινστιτούτο Ερευνών Περιβάλλοντος και Βιώσιμης Ανάπτυξης, Εθνικό Αστεροσκοπείο Αθηνών
Original Title:
Μοντελοποίηση της διακινδύνευσης δασικών πυρκαγιών στον τομέα της γαλάζιας οικονομίας υπό συνθήκες κλιματικής αλλαγής: Εφαρμογή στον τουρισμό της νήσου Κρήτης
Languages:
Greek
Translated title:
Modeling forest fire risk in the blue economy under climate change: Application in tourism of Crete island
Summary:
Nowadays, the consequences of climate change are undoubtedly more evident than ever, as they affect the ecological, social and economic sustainability of the Mediterranean regions in various ways. In particular, the ever-increasing frequency of fire incidents constitutes one of the most important threats to continental and island ecosystems, while having a direct negative impact on different sectors of the economy, including tourism. From this perspective, the present thesis attempts to assess forest fire risk that Crete island may present in the near (2046 – 2065) and distant future (2081 – 2100) in comparison with reference time period 1986 – 2005, given the climate conditions reflected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The relevant method is developed according to the conceptual framework of the "impact chain". Specifically, it is based on the combined use of qualitative and quantitative variables to fully describe the main factors of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), aiming at the formulation of the composite risk index. The final results indicate the contribution of all individual factors while, at the same time, the most critical environmental and socio-economic parameters that determine the risk levels are highlighted. The multicriteria spatial analysis which is further implemented by using the ArcGIS software, highlights the areas that are expected to be heavily affected in the future. Finally, the usefulness of this method is also underlined, both in terms of implementing the necessary preventive measures against the adverse effects of climate change and in terms of strengthening the adaptation planning.
Main subject category:
Science
Keywords:
climate change, risk, forest fires, sustainability, blue economy
Index:
Yes
Number of index pages:
11
Contains images:
Yes
Number of references:
109
Number of pages:
293
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