Unit:
Κατεύθυνση Φυσική ΩκεανογραφίαLibrary of the School of Science
Author:
Garouniatis Paschalis
Supervisors info:
Σοφιανός Σαράντης Αναπληρωτής Καθηγητής Τμήμα Φυσικής ΕΚΠΑ,
Φλόκα Έλενα Καθηγήτρια Τμήμα Φυσικής ΕΚΠΑ,
Βασίλειος Βερβάτης Συνεργάτης Ερευνητής Τμήμα Φυσικής ΕΚΠΑ
Original Title:
ENSEMBLE-BASED OIL SPILL MODEL PREDICTION USING STOCHASTIC WIND FORCING
Translated title:
ENSEMBLE-BASED OIL SPILL MODEL PREDICTION USING STOCHASTIC WIND FORCING
Summary:
The Aegean Sea is one of the world’s busiest trade routes throughout history in terms of maritime transport, which inevitably leads to the occurrence of mostly unintentional accidents causing oil pollution. Given its complex and intense weather and sea current patterns with strong seasonality, the uncertainty assessment of the oil spill forecasting systems in this region is of great interest. The objective of the present study is to assess the impact of wind forcing model uncertainties on the oil spill model prediction using the numerical model MEDSLIK-II. We will use stochastic modeling of the wind forcing based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) modes. Ensemble members will be generated using EOF modes including the integration of a perturbation factor which will represent the uncertainty needed for the stochastic wind forcing. The results will focus on the oil spill model uncertainty, as approximated by an ensemble, and compared with a deterministic simulation.
Main subject category:
Science
Keywords:
Aegean Sea, MEDSLIK II, oil spill, ensemble, uncertainty
