Τίτλος:
Oil spill model uncertainty quantification using an atmospheric ensemble
Γλώσσες Τεκμηρίου:
Αγγλικά
Περίληψη:
We investigate the impact of atmospheric forcing uncertainties on the
prediction of the dispersion of pollutants in the marine environment.
Ensemble simulations consisting of 50 members were carried out using the
ECMWF ensemble prediction system and the oil spill model MEDSLIK-II in
the Aegean Sea. A deterministic control run using the unperturbed wind
of the ECMWF high-resolution system served as reference for the oil
spill prediction. We considered the oil spill rates and duration to be
similar to major accidents of the past (e.g., the Prestige case) and we
performed simulations for different seasons and oil spill types. Oil
spill performance metrics and indices were introduced in the context of
probabilistic hazard assessment. Results suggest that oil spill model
uncertainties were sensitive to the atmospheric forcing uncertainties,
especially to phase differences in the intensity and direction of the
wind among members. An oil spill ensemble prediction system based on
model uncertainty of the atmospheric forcing, shows great potential for
predicting pathways of oil spill transport alongside a deterministic
simulation, increasing the reliability of the model prediction and
providing important information for the control and mitigation
strategies in the event of an oil spill accident.
Συγγραφείς:
Kampouris, Konstantinos
Vervatis, Vassilios
Karagiorgos, John
and Sofianos, Sarantis
Εκδότης:
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI:
10.5194/os-17-919-2021
