Τίτλος:
Estimating the Epicenter of a Future Strong Earthquake in Southern
California, Mexico, and Central America by Means of Natural Time
Analysis and Earthquake Nowcasting
Περίληψη:
It has recently been shown in the Eastern Mediterranean that by
combining natural time analysis of seismicity with earthquake networks
based on similar activity patterns and earthquake nowcasting, an
estimate of the epicenter location of a future strong earthquake can be
obtained. This is based on the construction of average earthquake
potential score maps. Here, we propose a method of obtaining such
estimates for a highly seismically active area that includes Southern
California, Mexico and part of Central America, i.e., the area
(N10W80120)-W-35. The study includes 28 strong earthquakes of magnitude
M & GE;7.0 that occurred during the time period from 1989 to 2020. The
results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the
epicenter of a future strong earthquake and the average earthquake
potential score maps. Moreover, the method is also applied to the very
recent 7 September 2021 Guerrero, Mexico, M7 earthquake as well as to
the 22 September 2021 Jiquilillo, Nicaragua, M6.5 earthquake with
successful results. We also show that in 28 out of the 29 strong M &
GE;7.0 EQs studied, their epicenters lie close to an estimated zone
covering only 8.5% of the total area.
Συγγραφείς:
Perez-Oregon, Jennifer
Varotsos, Panayiotis K.
Skordas,
Efthimios S.
Sarlis, Nicholas V.
