Τίτλος:
The temporal pattern of mortality responses to air pollution: A
multicity assessment of mortality displacement
Γλώσσες Τεκμηρίου:
Αγγλικά
Περίληψη:
Although the association between particulate matter and mortality or
morbidity is generally accepted, controversy remains about the
importance of the association. If it is due solely to the death, of
frail individuals, which are brought forward by only a brief period of
time, the public health implications of the association are fewer than
if there is an increase in the number of deaths. Recently, other
research has addressed the mortality displacement issue in single-city
analysis. We analyzed this issue with a distributed lag model in a
multicity hierarchic modeling approach, within the Air Pollution and
Health: A European Approach (APHEA-2) study. We fit a Poisson regression
model and a polynomial distributed lag model with up to 40 days of delay
in each city. In the second stage we combined the city-specific results.
We found that the overall effect of particulate matter less than 10 muM
in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) per 10 mug/m(3) for the fourth-degree
distributed lag model is a 1.61% increase in daily deaths (95% CI =
1.02-2.20), whereas the mean of PM,, on the same day and the previous
day is associated with only a 0.70% increase in deaths. (95% CI =
0.43-0,97). This result is unchanged using an unconstrained distributed
lag model. Our study confirms that the effects observed in daily
time-series studies are not due primarily to short-term mortality
displacement. The effect size estimate for airborne particles more than
doubles when we consider longer-term effects, which has important
implications for risk assessment.
Συγγραφείς:
Zanobetti, A
Schwartz, J
Samoli, E
Gryparis, A
Touloumi,
G
Atkinson, R
Le Tertre, A
Bobros, J
Celko, M
Goren,
A
Forsberg, B
Michelozzi, P
Rabczenko, D
Ruiz, EA and
Katsouyanni, K
Περιοδικό:
Epidemiology Monitor
Εκδότης:
Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins
Λέξεις-κλειδιά:
air pollution; mortality; mortality displacement
DOI:
10.1097/00001648-200201000-00014
