Τίτλος:
The temporal pattern of respiratory and heart disease mortality in
response to air pollution
Γλώσσες Τεκμηρίου:
Αγγλικά
Περίληψη:
Short-term changes in ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic
diameters < 10 mum (PM10) have been associated with short-term
fluctuations in mortality or morbidity in many studies. In this study,
we tested whether those deaths are just advanced by a few days or weeks
using a multicity hierarchical modeling approach for all-cause,
respiratory, and cardiovascular deaths, for all ages and stratifying by
age groups, within the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European
Approach) project. We fit a Poisson regression and used an unconstrained
distributed lag to model the effect of PM10 exposure on deaths up to 40
days after the exposure. In baseline models using PM10 the day of and
day before the death, we found that the overall PM10 effect (per 10
mug/m(3)) was 0.74% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), -0.17 to
1.66] for respiratory deaths and 0.69% (95% CL 0.31-1.08) for
cardiovascular deaths. In unrestricted distributed lag models, the
effect estimates increased to 4.2% (95% Cl, 1.08-7.42) for respiratory
deaths and to 1.97% (95% Cl, 1.38-2.55) for cardiovascular deaths. Our
study confirms that most of the effect of air pollution is not simply
advanced by a few weeks and that effects persist for more than a month
after exposure. The effect size estimate for PM10 doubles when we
considered longer-term effects for all deaths and for cardiovascular
deaths and becomes five times higher for respiratory deaths. We found
similar effects when stratifying by age groups. These larger effects are
important for risk assessment.
Συγγραφείς:
Zanobetti, A
Schwartz, J
Samoli, E
Gryparis, A
Touloumi,
G
Peacock, J
Anderson, RH
Le Tertre, A
Bobros, J and
Celko, M
Goren, A
Forsberg, B
Michelozzi, P
Rabczenko, D
and Hoyos, SP
Wichmann, HE
Katsouyanni, K
Περιοδικό:
Environmental Health Perspectives
Εκδότης:
US DEPT HEALTH HUMAN SCIENCES PUBLIC HEALTH SCIENCE
Λέξεις-κλειδιά:
air pollution; heart disease; hierarchical models; lung disease;
mortality displacement
