Τίτλος:
Future trends of HCV-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma
under the currently available treatments
Γλώσσες Τεκμηρίου:
Αγγλικά
Περίληψη:
The epidemic of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major public
health issue. We conducted a comprehensive analysis to estimate future
HCV-related morbidity and mortality, using a model which is the first to
take into account currently available treatments. We reconstructed the
incident infections per year in the past that progressed to chronic
hepatitis C (CHC) in Greece. Then, the natural history of the disease
was simulated in subcohorts of newly infected subjects in the presence
or absence of treatment using yearly estimates of the number of treated
patients obtained from national databases. Annual estimates of the
incidence and prevalence of CHC by fibrosis stage, hepatocellular
carcinoma (HCC) and mortality were obtained up to 2030. The current
proportion of naive CHC patients receiving treatment in Greece is 1.2%
per year. Treatment of 1.2-10% of naive CHC patients per year would
reduce the cumulative number of incident cirrhosis and HCC cases from
2002 to 2030 by 10.8-39.4% and 12.8-39.8%, respectively and decrease
the number of prevalent cirrhosis and HCC cases in 2030 by approximately
17-48% compared with the number estimated under the assumption of no
treatment. Approximately 17 cirrhosis cases or six HCC cases or 10
premature deaths would be prevented for every 100 treated patients.
However, the prevalent cirrhotic/HCC cases because of HCV and
HCV-related deaths would not plateau until 2030. Despite the
introduction of effective treatment, HCV-related morbidity and mortality
will likely increase during the next 20-30 years in Greece. Intensive
primary prevention efforts coupled with increased access to the
currently available treatments are necessary to control the chronic
consequences of HCV epidemic.
Συγγραφείς:
Sypsa, V
Touloumi, G
Papatheodoridis, GV
Tassopoulos, NC and
Ketikoglou, I
Vafiadis, I
Hatzis, G
Tsantoulas, D and
Akriviadis, E
Koutsounas, S
Hatzakis, A
Περιοδικό:
Journal of Viral Hepatitis
Λέξεις-κλειδιά:
chronic hepatitis C; fibrosis; Markov modelling; prediction; treatment
DOI:
10.1111/j.1365-2893.2005.00588.x
