Τίτλος:
Prediction of inactive disease in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: A multicentre observational cohort study
Γλώσσες Τεκμηρίου:
Αγγλικά
Περίληψη:
Objectives To predict the occurrence of inactive disease in JIA in the first 2 years of disease. Methods An inception cohort of 152 treatment-naïve JIA patients with disease duration <6 months was analysed. Potential predictors were baseline clinical variables, joint US, gut microbiota composition and a panel of inflammation-related compounds in blood plasma. Various algorithms were employed to predict inactive disease according to Wallace criteria at 6-month intervals in the first 2 years. Performance of the models was evaluated using the split-cohort technique. The cohort was analysed in its entirety, and separate models were developed for oligoarticular patients, polyarticular RF negative patients and ANA positive patients. Results All models analysing the cohort as a whole showed poor performance in test data [area under the curve (AUC): <0.65]. The subgroup models performed better. Inactive disease was predicted by lower baseline juvenile arthritis DAS (JADAS)-71 and lower relative abundance of the operational taxonomic unit Mogibacteriaceae for oligoarticular patients (AUC in test data: 0.69); shorter duration of morning stiffness, higher haemoglobin and lower CXCL-9 levels at baseline for polyarticular RF negative patients (AUC in test data: 0.69); and shorter duration of morning stiffness and higher baseline haemoglobin for ANA positive patients (AUC in test data: 0.72). Conclusion Inactive disease could not be predicted with satisfactory accuracy in the whole cohort, likely due to disease heterogeneity. Interesting predictors were found in more homogeneous subgroups. These need to be validated in future studies. © The Author(s) 2018.
Συγγραφείς:
Van Dijkhuizen, E.H.P.
Aidonopoulos, O.
Ter Haar, N.M.
Pires Marafon, D.
Magni-Manzoni, S.
Ioannidis, Y.E.
Putignani, L.
Vastert, S.J.
Malattia, C.
De Benedetti, F.
Martini, A.
Περιοδικό:
Rheumatology (United Kingdom)
Εκδότης:
Oxford University Press
Λέξεις-κλειδιά:
CXCL9 chemokine; hemoglobin, accuracy; Article; child; cohort analysis; disease activity; disease duration; female; hemoglobin blood level; human; inflammation; intestine flora; juvenile rheumatoid arthritis; major clinical study; male; Mogibacteriaceae; morning stiffness; multicenter study (topic); nonhuman; observational study; polyarthritis; prediction; priority journal; prognosis; algorithm; clinical trial; juvenile rheumatoid arthritis; multicenter study; pathology; predictive value; preschool child; prospective study; severity of illness index, Algorithms; Arthritis, Juvenile; Child; Child, Preschool; Female; Humans; Male; Predictive Value of Tests; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Severity of Illness Index
DOI:
10.1093/rheumatology/key148
