Τίτλος:
Criticality in epidemic spread: An application in the case of COVID19
infected population
Γλώσσες Τεκμηρίου:
Αγγλικά
Περίληψη:
Recently, it has been successfully shown that the temporal evolution of
the fraction of COVID-19 infected people possesses the same dynamics as
the ones demonstrated by a self-organizing diffusion model over a
lattice, in the frame of universality. In this brief, the relevant
emerging dynamics are further investigated. Evidence that this nonlinear
model demonstrates critical dynamics is scrutinized within the frame of
the physics of critical phenomena. Additionally, the concept of
criticality over the infected population fraction in epidemics (or a
pandemic) is introduced and its importance is discussed, highlighting
the emergence of the critical slowdown phenomenon. A simple method is
proposed for estimating how far away a population is from this
“singular” state, by utilizing the theory of critical phenomena.
Finally, a dynamic approach applying the self-organized diffusion model
is proposed, resulting in more accurate simulations, which can verify
the effectiveness of restrictive measures. All the above are supported
by real epidemic data case studies.
Συγγραφείς:
Contoyiannis, Y.
Stavrinides, S. G.
Hanias, M. P. and
Kampitakis, M.
Papadopoulos, P.
Picos, R.
Potirakis, S. M.
and Kosmidis, E. K.
Περιοδικό:
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
Εκδότης:
AMER INST PHYSICS
