Περίληψη:
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the
coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key
aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.
The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of
national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of
variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain
unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and
population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting
restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This
challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission
given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In
autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread
again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The
incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care
units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive
level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects
combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide
a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. (c)
2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access
article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Συγγραφείς:
Iftekhar, Emil Nafis
Priesemann, Viola
Balling, Rudi
Bauer,
Simon
Beutels, Philippe
Valdez, Andre Calero
Cuschieri,
Sarah
Czypionka, Thomas
Dumpis, Uga
Glaab, Enrico
Grill,
Eva
Hanson, Claudia
Hotulainen, Pirta
Klimek, Peter and
Kretzschmar, Mirjam
Kruger, Tyll
Krutzinna, Jenny
Low,
Nicola
Machado, Helena
Martins, Carlos
McKee, Martin and
Mohr, Sebastian Bernd
Nassehi, Armin
Perc, Matjaz
Petelos,
Elena
Pickersgill, Martyn
Prainsack, Barbara
Rocklov, Joacim
and Schernhammer, Eva
Staines, Anthony
Szczurek, Ewa and
Tsiodras, Sotirios
Van Gucht, Steven
Willeit, Peter
