Τίτλος:
Hospital care for persons with AIDS in the European Union
Γλώσσες Τεκμηρίου:
Αγγλικά
Περίληψη:
This study estimates the current and future hospital resources for AIDS
patients in the European Union (EU)I using multinational scenario
analysis (EU Concerted Action BMH1-CT-941723). In collaboration with
another EU-project (’Managing the Costs of HIV Infection’), six national
European studies on the utilization of hospital care for AIDS have been
selected to provide the data for our analysis. The selection criteria
involve recentness. quality, comparability, accessibility and
representativeness. Baseline hospital resource utilization is estimated
for hospital inpatient days and outpatient contacts, using a
standardized approach controlling for two severity stages of AIDS
(chronic stage and late stage). The epidemiological part of the study is
based on standard models for backcalculating HIV incidence and
projecting AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality. In the nest step,
baseline resource utilization is linked to epidemiological information
in a mixed prevalence and mortality-based approach. Several scenarios
render different future epidemiological developments and hospital
resource needs. For the year 1999, hospital bed needs of 10 000-12 700
in the EU are indicated. representing an increase of 20-60% compared to
the estimated current (1995) level. The projected range for 1999
corresponds to a maximum of 0.65% of all hospital beds available in the
EU. The growth in the number of outpatient hospital contacts is
projected to possibly exceed that of inpatient days up to 1.82 million
in 1999. Our methodology illustrates that estimation of current and
future hospital care for AIDS has to be controlled for severity stages,
to prevent biases. Further application of the multinational approach is
demonstrated through a ‘what-if’ analysis of the potential impact of
combination triple therapy for HIV/AIDS. Estimation of the economic
impact of other diseases could as well benefit from the severity-stages
approach. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.
Συγγραφείς:
Postma, MJ
Tolley, K
Leidl, RM
Downs, AM
Beck, EJ and
Tramarin, AM
Flori, YA
Santin, M
Antonanzas, F
Kornarou,
H
Paparizos, VCC
Dijkgraaf, MGW
Borleffs, J
Luijben, AJP
and Jager, JC
Περιοδικό:
Health Policy Research Bulletin
Εκδότης:
ELSEVIER SCI IRELAND LTD
Λέξεις-κλειδιά:
European Union; scenarios; projections; economic impact; hospital care;
severity staging; AIDS
DOI:
10.1016/S0168-8510(97)00019-5
